DECk will easily beat big for Q4 and raise guidance next week....
look at the weather in north america...blizzards end of February ! It is quite cold everywhere, so this is much colder than last year, where it was unseasonally warm.
The fact that it is continuing to be cold, should bode well for Q1 too.
Lowering cost of shoes this qtr is going to help big in bringing in new sales volumes. I see a lot of UGGs in the malls in north california. Will be much more in mid and east coast.
Plus they said new lower cost (but NOT lower margins) shoes to be introduced spring..this will help. Read the earnings transcript from last qtr.
Plus stock is trading at 10 PE.
Wow, you really pulled your pom-poms out for this post. I love assumptions of correlation equaling causation arguments. Hate to burst your bubble, but uggs are basically non-existent in the NYC area right now. It is cold, but not that cold, and very few wear uggs for blizzards. They also are non-existent among the mid-west college kids which is one of their biggest markets, so nice try, but again not a solid assumption. Trend is still to the leather mid-calf riding boot and will be until the industry and celebrities figure out how to make the consumer spend again for a new trend next year.
They will beat EPS only due to share buybacks. I read the transcripts from the last 4 Qs and the only conclusion I have is that management is incompetent at reacting to trends. The idea of opening uggs stores, like they are doing here in NY, is a huge gamble that the overhead will not be an issue and they can increase sales to meet the costs.
PE is only useful if the company is growing in determining a fair price.
Uggs are still way popular, and this idea of "leather riding boots" replacing warm-sheep-skin boots is a farce in your imagination, imo! I know, b/c I see the sales, almost daily! Cold leather riding boots are ZERO substitute for, warmth-loving sheep-skin! In fact, I'm wearing my toasty Ugg men's slippers as I type! I've owned "plain leather slippers" before, even some with faux fur, but I wouldn't trade my Uggs for anything else out there I can think of, for this time of year!
I'm not a "pom-pom cheerleader of companies I invest", so I won't attempt to rebut your other points, b/c some may be valid! But I will say, your notion that "Uggs is a fad that's over", especially for knee-high, leather boots", is comically WRONG, imo! No personal offense btw...
Also, to other posters making predictions, assume the worst always, and if you are proven wrong, then you'll be happy! Nothing worst than overly-rosy predictions about trading stocks, horse-racing and weather prognostications!