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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • parkchair parkchair Feb 28, 2013 10:00 AM Flag

    what nobody realizes

    what nobody seems to realize here is that this stock will do whatever the short wants it to do after earnings. the only way that that would not be true is if earnings/conf call indicate something which attracts a substantial number of very big new players. unless that happens, this stock does whatever the short wants it to do. whoever is short this stock massively has some very deep pockets in my opinion. they aren't going to get pushed around unless there is so much buying of the stock by new big players and i don't see that as likely. in other words, deck can beat earnings handily and still the stock goes up or down according to what the short wants. maybe up big a few days only to attract more retail buyers and then boom, down down down. i've seen it all before here with this stock and that is why i'm out. good luck to longs though. i'm on the long side.

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    • Good point you make and I agree with you; But the same could be said for GMCR. In fact, they even had deeper-pocketed shorts, super-bad press (remember the CNBC dude's crusade against them; Herb Greenberg), huge short-hedge-funds, etc..etc..), plus stiff new competition from Starbucks and the like, but ultimately the fundamentals proved-out, and watching that drama play-out taught me a lot about "how the shorts can indeed be broken when their thesis is proven totally incorrect. And the thing that gets me about that stock, is how Decker's fundamentals are so much way better!

      • 2 Replies to american_chariot
      • And let's not forget Netflix..........a smaller short interest than DECK and a $100 share price at earnings announcement. Went to $170, then $180 and today almost $190. Not saying that will happen to DECK and not expecting it but the possibilities are there.

      • first of all, the idea of this short being broken is ridiculous imo. they have already made mountains of money here, from $110 to $40 and probably have hedged a lot of their gains. but to answer your comparison to GMCR, let me say that "fundamentals proving out" here, with respect to DECK, means removing the thorn in its side -- the (BS, imo) feeling that they have enormous reliance on the ugg classic style and that any moment the "fad" could fade. remember, the fading fad was how this whole thing started in the first place (not margins or sheepsking prices). as long as that stays an issue, not much will change here. deck is moving into men's shoes and lots of new womens styles as well as their own stores. if all that works well, and i think it will, THEN we will see a similar "drama play out". but that could take a few years, and management doesn't strike me as capable of taking care of the share price in the meantime.

 
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