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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • johndoolittle46 johndoolittle46 Apr 22, 2013 4:56 PM Flag

    Earnings = shorts extra crispy

    290M cash/debt situation switched around from Q3 to q4.

    Deckers had 60M in cash and 260M in debt after Q3 earnings. After last earnings, cash became 133M and debt became just 35M. Deckers also still HAD 75M cash to buy back shares.

    This has been a nice, long, cold winter. 35% of float still short(INSANE, but they are trapped and trying to get out with the least pain). Deckers was thought to be a "fad"(by blind people apparently).

    But q4 proved that UGGS are anything but a fad. Over 1B in boots sold. So the 75% of erasure in value was clearly overkill and unwarranted. Now that the two worst possible things that could have happened to this company have happened(consecutive rise in sheepskin costs colliding with a warm winter for two years), this company has the wind at its back.

    This company is printing more than 290M in cash/year, trading at just 2B valuation(with 133M on the books and 75M in cash on top of the cash on the books being used to buy back shares). Lululemon is printing just 180M YOY in comparison at its highest growth point(30% whihc is going to inevitably decline). Deckers is printing this kind of cash IN A BAD YEAR with its worst earnings in two years!).

    Watch these two companies criss-cross each other in the next 24 months(deckers on the upps, and lululemon on the downside). Switching positions.

    Z

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