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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • optimismiscontagious optimismiscontagious May 13, 2013 6:46 PM Flag

    To All Shorts: Cover and go long!

    You will be part of an awesome company and reap the rewards of being part-owners.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • They have an issue because there is no liquidity. Goldman Sachs bought op 10% of the company in the mid 30's as well as other companies. The reason for the doubling in 6 months has been a result of just 1/3rd of the short position having covered comingled with the institutional buying. The institutional buying will continue because if you go ahead and give us the 7-9 in cash/share we will have by the end of december, the stock is trading at just a 12.5 p/e going foward despite UGG pures likely being a tremednous hit and growth to our top and bottom line as well as cash. So one is theoretically getting a company at STILL just a 12.5 foward p/e.

      Management has taken out the risk somewhat by projecting CONSERVATIVE 7% growth meaning that in a wrost case type of scenario we remain flat and still produce another 250M in cash. The worst case scenario is we have a year with 128M in earnings and 250M in cash produced from operations. Compared to the current valuation, it just is a ridiculous steal.

      UGG pure will meet the broader market making much less but wanting to own UGGS(number 1 searched item during christmas season). So with the better pricing, 1+1=2 and it isn;t hard to figure out that when the kids or moms go out and search for UGGS again this coming christmas season and see the better price point for certain products...it should be a HIT. IF it isn;'t, we get what we got this year. Again, everything bad is priced in the stock.

      The only thing one can;t foresee is the short term price movement. But 1682 days and counting, it is a no brainer. At 7-9 of cash/ year, cash will catch up to valuation. Simple fact that I know, you now know/have known, and shorts are now well aware.

      Z

 
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