MAnagement needs to be aggressive again and get board approval
for another 300M buyback. To pass up the chance of buying back 600M worth of the stock at 3-5 year lows while making 100M this coming year and due to UGG Pure should just continue to give us more cash...would be a waste not to take advantage to the fullest.
The markets treatment of Deckers shows 1)the market is ridiculously stupid at valuing companies and 2)likely something more sinister going on with these HFT programs than people/SEC realize.
To illustrate, in 2012, the same year that Deckers made 89.5M in cash, it was valued at just 990M at the low in october. Now 10 months later, company with raised guidance, stock is still trading at just 1.94B, despite 221M of stock bought back the last 23 months with 79M on current buybck still available and management could easily just borrow another 300M and do another whole round of buying back.
So this 1.94B company HAS THE ABILITY to buyback 600M of itself over 4 years if management would just issue another buyback.
But just the fact that this company that in its worst year made 89.5M and going foward has the potential to make more than double that amount in 3-5 years from now, 1.94B valuation does not do the company justice.
It just goes to show you the market is S L O W at realizing PURE VALUE, which is why you see very few people make outstanding returns. Because most people think the same.
It is good to be early. Get in before the crowd. But it requires patience to realize YOU ARE IN FACT SMARTER than the market.