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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • questioncnbc questioncnbc Sep 4, 2013 9:56 AM Flag

    Why it is all about the ten year discount rate

    Take a look at any stock that was 1)growing and 2)producing lots of cash flow compared to valuation over the least couple years.

    Blue chip stocks destroyed them in outperformance or matched them because the ten year rate just made taking risk in non-blue chip companies not really worthwhile when you can get a walmart with a 2.5% dividend or mcdonalds or coke earnings more just from dividends than the ten year. So those stocks went up.

    But now its a year later and the ten year is up 90% and NOW those blue chip companies are mighty risky in comparison to the ten year as the dividends pay LESS than the ten year. So what is money to do?

    It is going to look for those stocks that produce more cash than the ten year rate and the ability to produce even more going foward. Hence, the under armours, the deckers, the las vegas sands. Those companies have been held hostage by the ten year for a long time but now the market needs those companies for their cash flow and growth.


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