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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • jimmach123 jimmach123 Oct 20, 2013 11:32 AM Flag

    Temps 2 weeks later than last year

    Noticed it this past week here in NY...leaves are a bit later as is the ~40 and sub temps. Oct 5 weekend was this cold. Likely to impact sales, but could mitigate effects with a very harsh Nov-Feb.

    Out in DC this weekend...lots of riding boots at the capital monuments, few uggs, with temps in the 50s-60s.

    Going to pick up a few hundred shares tomorrow and then wait until day of earnings to either exit if it does its little pre-earnings run-up or sell covered calls for the 25th.

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    • Feel like I'm beating a dead horse here but I will say it again; it is priced in at this level.

      The biggest reason the stock fell from 118/share to 28/share was sheepskin costs. Then combined with warmer weather and lower interest rates....the stock just didn;t stand a chance. It got whacked to $$$$. Then came all these bogus fad rumors which time has ALREADY proven are just not true.

      So this stock is now again sitting at a level of 50% off its all-time high set 2 years ago. The sheepskin factor is being handled. Company is coming out with different/diversified product and is expanding internationally.

      Are there thigs to worry about? Sure there is. Every company has something to worry about. The only way to make money is to buy a company at a cheap enough price where you are getting paid for the risk as opposed to paying up for something that time can rendered FAD or uncompetetive.

      It is the nature of the beast. Nothing lasts forever, as we don't. Generatios pass, trends change, etc. The GAME of life and the market especially doesn;t care; the focus is on the here and now. How much is this company/brand, its popularity and its earnings worth today? Could I do the same thing by just starting my own brand for 2.05B with such worldwide recognition as well as expansion. NO WAY. Market will pay up as Deckers proves with earnings that it still makes plenty of money and likely to make much more over the next 36 months.

      Z

      • 1 Reply to questioncnbc
      • You are a dead horse...always rambling on with the same argument over and over, with a combination of red herring and strawman fallacies in every argument. Sheepskin prices was the biggest reason...seriously? Wow, wow, wow, wow...clearly you missed the winter of 2011 and how fashion trends moved that winter, but again, I did not; I just find it funny how you keep going back to that as the main reason. While it had an effect, it was definitely NOT the main effect (regardless of mgmt.'s smoke and mirrors in their conference calls). Face it...the boots and shoes were simply over-stocked and not selling with weather and the resurgence of the leather riding boot, which DECK had only 1-2 riding boots designs at the time. Revs and profits fell drastically below expectations due to overall sales; margins just put some icing on the cake.

        Personally, I think 50-55 is "priced in" for this for this Q after the 24th and the near term next 12 months will literally depend on mother nature. It is safe at that point. Could hang out at 50-60, could grow and have a great winter. Hence, my purchase of a few hundred shares and selling the $60 strike for 25 Oct. If it falls, I keep the shares and just resell weekly options on the shares for income; if it goes up, I lose my shares with a 5% premium. I can live with that - the great thing about having little to no emotion in a company ;-)

        GLTA...24th should be interesting.

 
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