You should actually be happy history is not 100% repeating - last ER this thing sunk HARD the entire 2 weeks before the report, from about 67 to 57. We already saw this sell off, as Z mentioned, likely a fund dumping based on volume and selling pattern.
My relatively conservative estimate for the ER: 5.25-5.50 EPS, revs at an amazing level, and solid guidance showing that retail stores are already placing massive pre-orders for next year. I want to hear words like "had trouble keeping inventory stocked to meet demand due to extreme cold." This guidance piece is key. I see the stock moving to about 110 as Spring hits if they also provide growth in the non-UGG brand to show other growth potential. But as I said in another post, I am likely to sell the 100 covered call for 28 Feb on Thursday as I see it struggling to break into the triple digits immediately after the ER.
25 months ago all held similar amounts of shares. So why are they not selling dear audience? Because 25 months have gone by, the worst in sheepskin costs is behind us, cold weather is BACK(seriously lol), ciompany has 15% les shares....stock trading 30% below all-time high set 25 months.
Same story with Under Armour when it got whacked to hell in 2008/2009. Insiders just held and waited paitently. See this IS a somewhat rigged game. Market pretends the obvious isn't the obviosu and then when you least expect it....boom. UA did it. 80 PE? Who would have thought. But now it is so patently obvious, that the market has given the premium as nothing has shown it can stop UA.
Deckers will show over the next 30 months similar results. We might pullback 10% for some reason(no one ever knows, market as a whole can correct). But in 27 months from now, this stock will be nicely over 200/share.