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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • jimmach123 jimmach123 May 28, 2014 11:06 AM Flag

    and the pattern continues...

    1st trading day a 2-4% that usually fades to about 1.5-2% into the close. Then we spend days 2-4 (in this case 2-3) losing those gains or more and then rebound a little bit at the end of the week to close slightly down or near flat. DSW and KORS both with very conflicting reports today (one with footwear blaming weather, the other with awesome sales and no weather issues). Expect we end the week about 75-77, possibly climbing back to 78.

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    • Could not hold a gain if its future depended on it. Once again another pop and fade. Back into the 78+ range and then back to the 77.50 range. Non-stop pattern repeating itself.

    • Could not hold a gain if its future depended on it. Once again another pop and fade. Back into the 78+ range and then back to the 77.50 range. Non-stop pattern repeating itself.

      • 2 Replies to jimmach123
      • and once again the pattern settles. 77.29 , just as predicted. It climbed into the 78 range but settled back down. Another week of covered call premium decay and profit. Would love for this to breakout to above 81 by next Friday, but don't see it.

        Monday will see this move to close to 80, as usual, then back off and again end next week in the 77-78 unless some sort of outlier catalyst occurs. It is dead money (outside call selling) until next ER. This will either prove to be an accumulation point or overpriced buy based on the next ER results.

      • It doesn't quite matter right now. Ideally, we all want to make money right away. But when one buys a house or an apartment, it doesn;t appreciate right away or ever. It is just an asset. Deckers makes cash, so VALUE INVESTING says you find the company whose future cash you believe will outweigh the company's value. Now for all I know, Deckers is bankrupt in 15 years from now and I'm dead. But that is all for all we know. The market doesn't care about that. The market just cares about what it knows in the present.

        When Deckers prints 137M+ in cash next year and management again forecasts growth, and then in 24 months from now another 140M+ in cash is is just a matter of TIME.

        Just look at under armour for a perfect example. IT was obvious that UA was growing revenues. It was obvious its earnings were going to grow. Yet, the stock was held down at a microcap valuation for SO LONG...until POP, all within 40 months.


    • The worst imaginable scenario for Deckers next year is earnings are flat compared to their 13% growth projection(cannot imagine them being so off as I believe they are being conservative in their projections to begin with).

      So to imagine that we make the same amount next year in a worst worst case scenario next year(meaning 137M inc ash flow as well).....not priced in at 2.65B. We should be valued at the very least at 3.9-4B.


      • 1 Reply to uggs8788
      • Your entire basis of value is cash flow and innovation. Yet reality is that the stock fails to produce results in 2/4 seasons. It won't command the valuation you note until it can show it is not a fickle season based stock that can likely show slowed/flat growth in warm weather. We can debate this all day, but the simple fact is that the stock IS valued at 2.65B and you arguing higher will not push it higher. The stock has to show the market it is deserving of a 4B valuation which right now it is simply not.

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