Another angle on the RE play is China Rare Earth, trades on the Honk Kong Exchange. I bought a position and it has done very well - I plan to hold. It is more of a play on the RE refining and manufacture, but a part of the RE market.
I like Lynas longterm but this entire market could collapse. The systemic US problems have not been dealt with we may all be disappointed. My plan is to stay in cash and buy what bargains i can. Sorry for the neg vibe but there is really not a lot of good news. Good luck.
I looked at Charles Schwab on Lynas and they say that they now have 1.66 billion shares. How can you get any earnings per share or any per share statistics that will make any sense.
In addition China controls 95% of the world market in thses metals and gross sales are just over $1B dollars.
Even if Lynas was the only other mine during the next decade and that will not be the case, they would need to create a 100% increase in the need for these metals and they would have to capture 100% of sales on the increase in demand just to generate 1 billion.
The Chinese and other companies are not going to let them do that. Having close to 2 billion shares is a big problem. Plus Chinese labor costs are $1000 per person compared to Australia where labor will get $40,000 per worker or more, just like the mining industry areas in Australia.
China is a big country, bigger than Australia and 90% of its minerals have not even been discovered yet. During the next decade I expect the amount of new discoveries of gold, silver, copper, rare earth will increase by 100%. Why, because China has just scratched the surface during the last ten years in terms of exploration of its own country.
The west is not able to compete against China when it wants a market. It is called $1-2 per hour labor costs. We can not compete against that.