You may be selling near the low for the stock, but I can understand your impatience! This company has not been a good investment to date. Many are expecting a resurgence of the share price as production of Reo products occurs which is probably imminent. Yet unless these products can be sold at a profit, the share price will languish IMO. So it remains to be seen if Lynas can finally reward its share holders! At this juncture I am holding onto my shares.Good luck on your future investments, Stan!!!!
I agree that 2013 is a make it or break it year for Lynas as this is their chance to turn the direction. If something has not made a remarkable improvement by 2nd quarter or 3rd quarter then it doesn't look pretty. However, if REE prices rebound 10-20% over 2013 this would dramatically affect the bottom line, and most of this Malaysian political nonsense should be behind them. From that more likely scenario, I am still a hold to buy proponent. It will likely be choppy up and down for the next 1-2 months, then potentially a late spring rebound.
First let me say that I do not know AU GAP. But based on US GAP if they have even $1.00 in sales there have to release cogs details of plant operations. The costs to operate the plant could be a real shock. We may see this in Q1 If not Q2 for sure. This could create tremendous down pressure. Also taking out all construction related expenses loses in Q3 were 30 M they went up by over 5 M to 35 in Q4. IF they go over 40 M ( I think they will) in Q1 This is another clue that the chances are very small that they will have any profit in calendar 2013. Note when NC talks about profits he always says physical 2013 which is July 2013 to June 2014, he is also very vague about when in P 2013 we will see those profits. Also the Annual Report will be out late in August and this will give many details. Overall I think the chances of setting new lows in the next six months is better than say any price over 0.75. Could some good news cause a spike? Absolutely! This stock never fails to surprise me with it’s positive spikes on fairly insignificant news. In my opinion, as more operational details come out the 1 to 2 year SP trend is down.
Also note RE Prices on Lynas home page. In a 3 weeks we will see what MCP received for the product they produced. due to refining differences I expect Lynas to receive between 10 and 25% less. ( I know about 2011 contracts I do not think they will help, your welcome to think differently) Also note that prices where about 8.6% higher in Q4 than today, adjusted for mount weld distribution. So for me Lynas will not receive enough to cover costs till prices go up which will not happen if Lynas and MCP even come close to meeting goals.