Results are Friday I predict that Lynas will set a new low below 0.45 before May 19th. Primary reason being the loses will be the largest ever which I have been saying for nearly 9 months. Also I predicted Q2 loses would be much smaller than Q1. Recent price drops say I was overly optimistic in my Q2 forecast. I still think Q2 loses will be smaller but only a little bit. The stock will have some nice positive bounces over the summer but before September is over the stock will be in the low 40s and the 1 year low will be below $0.40. Tell me I am trash but when you do please include your own forecast with numbers and dates not just it is going up. We can all save the posts and compare in May and September. I need to see Q2 results to know for sure but I am starting to believe that my forecast of profits in early 2014 were optimistic as well.
Based on the latest Q report, I say you are overly pessimistic on your future price points of .40c and below. They seem to have fairly good position on cash, the election will be positive, Ree prices likely to stabilize over the next 2 Qs. I'm not saying PPS is going to rocket from here, but negatives are mostly priced in at current PPS. You will see a rotation into materials in the 2nd half of the year, which the REE space will benefit. You can ramble on about oversupply as much as you want but this company is severly undervalued at .50c
gogowadof100s This prediction has nothing to do with political events it is about profits.
stockdude13 I have been wrong on my price points every single time. Not once have I been correct. But since I bought this stock, 2011, and latter sold, estimates have been HIGH EVERY TIME, but much lower than the analysis. Sooner or latter they will be wrong on the low side but track record says this is a high estimate. Estimate is at the top of what I think will happen. I have no doubt whatsoever the elections will turn out fine for Lynas. There is no down side built in for the elections at all. The only negative for political events is the POL could be delayed to the end of the year, granted in Q4.
The prediction is based on Lynas and MCP combined output driving La and Ce prices lower and Lynas continuing to show loses because they are unable to make a profit at these prices. COGS higher than sales price. MCP has not given an up date since Q4 CC but if they are on the schedule given during CC, recent drops in La and Ce prices might be explained by their output.
These prices will hurt MCP all most as bad as Lynas. This is not a recommendation for MCP it is a recommendation to stay out of REE space till demand catches up, which it will, but not for a year or two.
You have been wrong on your price points before, little reason to doubt you can be wrong again. I think the election result will be a positive and stablized REE prices will support the stock. It is the outlook that is most important, the losses are already priced in.