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SkyWest Inc. Message Board

  • airwolf1980 airwolf1980 Jan 8, 2002 8:37 PM Flag

    nycstockpicker

    How's the short position?

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    • It has been pretty small so far; yesterday, I opened it up big time and it is doing very well.

      Thanks for asking!

      ps. Please don't think I have anything against SKYW, I just think that they (and ACAI) are going to get caught in the crossfire which is starting to erupt at UAL on several different issues. The questions in the UAL organization are:

      1. Why should our partners be making so much more than us. Shouldn't they take some of the cost reduction burden from us? (asked by management and the board)

      2. How close is UAL to breaking its pilot contract by flying less than 431 narrowbodies (with the 727 and 737-200 fleet reductions), thus invoking the scope clause? (Pilots' issue).

      3. If UAL gets any reductions, isn't DAL is going to want their fair share?

      Please note that both ACAI and SKYW are in the same position. While ACAI is more dependent on UAL, this works in reverse of normal expectation. Dulles can not survive without ACAI; no one could duplicate what ACAI has built in any reasonable amount of time. Denver and LAX is a different story. MESA would love to get another UAL contract to deploy some of their incoming planes in order to spread their risk.

      The third risk to ACAI and/or SKYW is that UAL deals with the scope clause by buying and flying the metal itself (as AMR and CAL do).

      • 2 Replies to nycstockpicker
      • Ouch! Up a buck, as a long I can't say I feel bad for you. Your loss is my gain. Your arguments are reasonable but miss the big point. UAL and DAL make money on the current contracts. So does SKYW and ACAI. UAL and DAL are losing money on the mainline, they can't transfer routes fast enough. Sure they would like to get a bigger piece of the pie, who wouldn't. Can't blame them for trying. DAL could put SKYW's UAL assets to work in a heartbeat and UAL could do the same with SKYW's DAL assets. I think the UAL pilots finally are figuring RJs don't steal routes, they keep them from being abandoned. The RJs feed the big UAL transcons. When traffic rebounds mainline narrow bodies can pick up routes that need the capacity. The only concession I would consider would be to lower the fee-for-departure rate and increase the bonus level significantly to give SKYW leverage on the upside.

      • I have addressed your scope issues in another post, but you need to consider something else as far as competition for the United Express routes.

        While I am certain that Mesa would love to regain a UEX codeshare, I am not so sure United would be satisfied with the commitment to quality from Mesa. I believe this is why they lost the west coast routes to SkyWest in the first place. United wants a quality product at a competitive price.

        ACAI has apparently completed their negotiations with United for the year with no indication of downward movement other than to say the settlement was in accordance with the overlaying pricing agreement.

 
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