This stock is trading as though bankrupcy is likely.
There are two things that are being ignored here. I haven't seen or heard much on this board about either one.
Here is what else should be considered:
1. With regard to a possible BK. Forget it. Not
that it couldn't happen - but that it is just
very unlikely. Does anyone really think that
our leaders (such as they now are) would
really be willing to lose a major defense
2. The other 800 lb gorilla might just be the
highly likely infrastructure related
contracts for stuff like concrete mixers
that can be expected as infrastructure
repairs and additions are carried out.
No, I'm really not ignoring the 800# gorilla (debt), nor those three (3) chimps (lawyers), who have initiated class-action lawsuits on the behalf of investors, or some of the other factors you cite.
Per lending, sure it is tough (notably per commercial), but some things which are easier to collateralize per municipal purchases/investments are still happening. Municipals wishing to borrow for payrolls are having it tough, but they try to do these by hypothecating tax receivables (diminishing), thus won't fly. Hard assets and hard material acquisitions are different, as are infrastructure investments into energy, water, roads/bridges, etc.
Not all foreign economies are ice cold. China is still at 5.5% - 6% and OSK is expanding there. PRC is a bit slumped from previous, but right now there's not too many folks, who wouldn't give President-elect Obama a "Lewinsky", if he can get our rate of growth back at that level. And there are those folks at OSK, who know that it makes sense to expand in China, given they're going to look how they can do so here and generally maintain the trade balance with us here in the USA.
Per the subject of "How low is it going to go??", I don't know and I don't see municipal improving significantly until about next June, which I've said here long before some of those smart economists are now saying also.
I think the EV component will improve, just as soon as someone gets real smart and figures out that:
(1) it can't be done anymore the way it has been done,
(2) new models/tech need to be introduced and
(3) there just may be connection/relationship that if it isn't working, we're not making as much money as we could, others who are still trying to get different results by doing the same thing and as the result are either bankrupt, reduced, losing money/sales and have their stocks in the toilet...then perhaps it just might be time to do things more efficiently, more modernly, more globally and more economically.
Perhaps something like this may not happen unless/until hell freezes over, however, when you consider how much chill there is right now in D.C. and Wall Street (not counting the winter weather), some folks just may soon have an epiphany secondary to sphincter pucker, as profits and stock prices race the thermoteter to absolute zero.
Don't get me wrong, I follow this company and want it to do well, but being a commercial real estate lender, you are ignoring the 800lb gorilla, OSK's commercial sector is dead and foreign economies are worse than ours so that sector is also ice cold..
I am torn on pulling the trigger to double up yet again (35/20/14), but I am thinking that maybe this is as good as it gets for awhile.. everything I have looked at since January is down 50% aside from the utilities sector and the Campbells of the world..
Sit tight unless you have extra funds.. like I said, I am really torn on this one... but will probably jump in if it stays in the $4 range.. too bad the dividend sprung already.
This has to be somewhat related to what's happening in automotive industry generally, certainly per GM, Ford and others.
I agree that EV is chugging along and will continue to do so. Smaller units such as quick-attack/brush may have heavier demand, but after this the tankers, and tanker-pumpers still are in pretty decent demand. Ambulances are replaced more frequently, because they respond to so many calls.
I'm amazed OSK is down this far, certainly with the news of expansion into China markets and general efforts for more global expansion.
Per domestic market, it will improve starting about the middle of next year and as credit crunch eases. Municipalities will be first to benefit per EV apparatus acquistions and infrastructure projects, because even with reduced revenues they are still the safer bets, because financers' risks are spead across a larger base.
I checked the insider buying and didn't see all that much, given the price decline. I'd like to buy at these levels but I keep thinking that I'm missing something. I also have relatives that work for the fire truck side and business seems good. Can the truck division be that bad?
Just what the stock market needs is another dumb buyer buying on credit. That's how all this started with the idea by all the Harvard boys that the way to riches is buying everything on credit. CASH IS KING and will be for a long time coming.
I agree that the insiders know something that we don't...I've been noticing their consistent acquisitions...maybe some big news coming! I have totally tapped my margin...am all in...had to sell a little to protect from a margin call. The bottom has to be somewhere in the near future...the market always leads the way to recovery and it is screaming oversold once again!
I think that we are just seeing alot of forced selling...what a shame to have to sell at these levels...it hurt me a little today...but I only had to give up a small amount.