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Oshkosh Corporation Message Board

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  • luckyone581 luckyone581 Mar 24, 2010 5:53 AM Flag

    Chart Evaluation & Sell Mention

    I don't usually use the NAZ as my bellweather but then again this past year the NAZ has been the leader to the upside and the SPX has been the drag.

    Nonetheless, the indexes do not go in opposite directions and therefore if the NAZ has found a top, it is unlikely that the other indexes will go "much" higher.

    In my chart mention I do state the fact that the DOW and the SPX can actually go higher with the NAZ simply lags behind or goes nowhere.

    I can see the DOW getting up to the 11100 level and the SPX up to 1200 while the NAZ stays at this price. That would mean an addition 300 points in the DOW and an additional 30 points in the SPX.

    Nonetheless, let me mentions that in 2001/2002 the SPX was unable to get above 1173/1177 and yesterday's high was 1174. Its an "old" resistance and not necessarily something that the traders will respect or follow, but it certainly was a major resistance that year.

    In addition, in 2006, the DOW stopped flat cold at 10968 and that is only 70 point higher.

    The NAZ is the only index of the three, though, whose resistance is more recent. The resistance in the NAZ is from 2008. In addition, the NAZ is the only index that is presently above the 200-week MA. The DOW's 200-week MA is currently at 11140 and the SPX is at 1225.

    Either way you look at it, the indexes are all at very strong resistance levels from the past and don't have much more room, or reason, to go higher.

    If they do go higher, then this is the biggest bull market ever! I just don't think that from a fundamental basis it can be.

    In 2004 the high of unemployment was 6.3% and even when it topped out at that level, the market corrected 11% over a period of 6 months. In addition, in 2004, the market did NOT have the housing crisis or the banks in such a pickle.

    It seems impossible to me that with unemployment at 9.7% and many analysits still saying it is going higher, with housing still expected the decline (no real bottom seen) and with the finance market having their future profit potential cut, due to their inability to speculate or charge feew the way they did in the past, that the market can be in the "most bullish market ever".

    Keep in mind that even after the recession in 2001/2002, after the DOW reached a low of 7400 and the SPX at 750, those indexes were only able to rally to 10754 in the DOW and 1163 in the SPX. This past year the DOW got down to 6470 and the SPX to 666 and they have already both gone above the highs seen in the first year of a "true bull market" in 2004.

    I just can't see it, both from a chart perspective or from a fundamental basis.

    I think the manipulation power has reached the absolute limit to the upside and things will soon start to unravel, perhaps even mmuch more than the 11% correction seen in the indexes in 2004, between March and October.

 
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