The four year average low for <CALC> from 1999 through 2003 was +/- $6.00/share, with a plummet to $3.00.
If you look at most other residential builder's equity markets, you'll see parallel figures. And this was the climb out of the 1999 across-USA price drop on homes, new & old.
Why do the current buyers think that now is different? Now is worse! Our national debt has sky rocketed. Our trade balance is worse than ever. And the division between the wealthy and working poor is wider than ever.
If you look at my prior postings, I predicted this. I sold <CALC> at $24. I am now revising downward my estimates for this stock. In the near term, it will drop to $7.00. But I really wouldn't buy again until under $6.00.
Yes, recovery will come. But not in the near term as the pundits would have you think. Most of the loans that the builders took to build most of the current projects won't come due until mid-2008. At that point, the builders will have to either give away their inventory to make their bank payments - or go under. Many will go under, taking their lenders with them!
Short this market hard. If you have cash, go to Florida in 2008/2009 and put deposits on condos when their prices hit 1/4 of their original asking price.