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Gulf Resources, Inc. Message Board

  • sinuage sinuage Sep 10, 2013 5:28 PM Flag

    Technical Trend

    So looking at the intraday moves, it seems there's more profit taking than anything given the stock has essentially gone up 33% in a month (almost doubled in 3 months). I say this since the volume doesn't seem to show (IMHO) that the movement is based on information.

    Also looking at the history of the stock there's generally pull-back after a big move. What I'd like to see over the next few day is the new channel is 1.80 - 2 and 1.80 is the new resistance. Plus the aftermarket action seems bearish.

    However, the volume is still above average and the move seems bigger than simple profit taking which is of some concern.

    Since no one's talking today, anyone like to discuss how we should play it? I'm thinking this stock will jump around but with an upward trend as long as the news from China is good. I'd probably hold till before the Q3 results (unless they look to be completely in line with expectations) and get back in right after playing the volatility. Then build a position and do it over again. I don't see the sustained volume that would make this a good stock to hold unless you've been in it for a while (for the Long term cap gains).

    Feel free to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and forgo all civility in your discourse in your comments; it'll be a good chance to build up my ignore list.

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    • Historically the stock would have tanked after a run up like this. It has been trading in a healthy pattern for a chanage. I suspect that it will build a new base her and then we'll see the next leg up. IMHO.

    • The 120 day chart looks good. There is good movement up on volume and the stock tends to drop on low volume. Stock just needs more participants. I think we will see an upward trend until the end of the year. Shorts have been exiting for a while now. That in itself speaks volumes. There are three wild cards here that could send the stock upward very quick.
      1. Chemical division continues to expand.
      2. Price of bromine reverses current trend.
      3. Lawsuit is finally put to bed.

      • 1 Reply to lastonestanding000
      • Nice!
        You describe it well.
        Easy pattern.
        Floor Price at $1.10 to $1.12 ($2MM stock repurchase program)
        Big support $1.25, $1.40, $1.60, and working on $1.80.
        Cash per share at low $2 range and consistent rebuild on EBITDA or UCA cash flow viewpoints, during downturn, EPS lagged on aggressive depreciation/amortization for on-going CAPEX and acquisitions..
        P/E ratio deceptive in short term. Low $2 range is a safe bet for the algorithms. These higher volume days are helping shift the programs. Ha!

        1. With Chemical division expansion - stronger sales team, increased diversity of customer base, or acquisition/joint venture. That's a key piece of increasing capacity utilization.

        2. As economic conditions improve, higher capacity utilization, even if depressed price, brings back EPS (depreciation/amortization expenses somewhat fixed relative to expected revenue growth - and has less ability to shelter increased profits as margins overcome fixed operational expenses). So, while bromine price is half the equation, volume could also move the stock.

        3. Lawsuit settlement, perhaps a lack of short hit pieces (give the stock some time to breath - covering, finally ringing register, moving on), and perhaps a greater amount of PR - all needed to gain better visibility and market acceptance. The circus has to leave town before investors see the opportunity.
        Nice! well, said it twice. sorry for my ramblings, back to vacation..

        Sentiment: Buy

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