The very negative article posted via SA yesterday certainly did its intended job and I dare say almost to perfection. I can only imagine the writer is having a difficult time containing his laughs this morning. Folks, please knonw the sky is NOT falling on this stock. TLON will work back to recover the lost ground as investors get a hold of their better senses. One persons assessment of this situation, which is out in left field, will blow over quickly. Those folks who took advantage of the drop in share price this morning are going to be gloating once the FDA gives their aprpoval to Marquibo. Beyond that, I suspect the leadership of TLON will have some very postiive things to say as it pertains to acquistiion rights to this newly developed product and that will bolster confidence in this stock to a high degree. Stay tuned, folks. The real show here is just beginning as we find ourselves working toward Marqibo's approval on August 12th.
Cheers and good investing,
RT im in it for the long haul i sure hope your right! I hope that a hole that killed us the last time don't decide to kick us in the nuts while were down he's another know it all bio tech guy. He took this stock to .40 before the 7-4 approval.
I work in this field in ALL. That is why I invested in Marquibo. First it was Adam F'head at The Street who totally underestimated the value of the clinical evidence for Marquibo in light of the high unmet need and lack of any alternative treatments and claimed there was no way the ODAC AC would vote in favor of Marquibo. Adam did a hatchet job a week before ODAC and knocked down the price by 20%. Now the latest hedge fund lackey also takes advantage of a binary event and the inherent shakiness/weakness of the stock price, and knocks it down 35% with another bag full of 'left field' opinions and exaggerations.
The world is full of such slime who wouldn't think twice of stealing money from their own neighbor, brother, you name it. They'll lie and cheat and not think twice about it.
Marquibo and Talon will be worth a lot more soon and then these slime can crawl back into their whole.
This is a micro orphan drug indication, it is going to get priced at a very high premium, I'd say $45,000 for a typical course of treatment, or maybe higher. Orphan drugs can run into the $100,000 price range.
Uptake and achievement of peak sales is going to be very quick. This is a small group of academic physicians who treat these ALL patients. Very easy to reach and also very willing to use the latest approved drugs, with no concern for price. I expect peak sales within 1.5 years of launch. That means $65-100 million in sales in 2014.
Now, Marquibo is a very attractive acquisition target. ALL is a sure thing, a done deal, even though Mr. Shortie at the HF will lie otherwise. But front line ALL in Ph. 3, and salvage in children, which is a Ph. 2 study underway already, and front line NHL is going to be a much, much bigger market. More like $1 billion. This is huge. The proof of concept is already established in a similar blood cancer patient, so NHL has a decent chance of hitting on efficacy endpoints too. So big pharma loves this type of game. An approved drug, with a known market and sales, and a good likelihood of existing/ongoing trials hitting into a much bigger market.
I think 8x annual sales multiple for a buyout price is very realistic. That yields $500 million on the low end and $800 million on the high end.
DNDN numbers are 2x sales, not 8x sales. DNDN has been waiting since 2007 for a buyout.
2x $65M sales is $130M. TLON already has 120M common shares, with more A3 to be issued for up to one year after approval.
1. TLON is fairly valued at $1.
2. You need FDA approval to support $1.
3. DNDN and HZNP and AMRN all want buyouts.
"... achievement of peak sales is going to be very quick. This is a small group of academic physicians who treat these ALL patients. Very easy to reach and also very willing to use the latest approved drugs, with no concern for price."
Dr. Dietcher has said that since many of these physicians participated in the phase II study of Marqibo for ALL and are specialist who other physicians refer too the marketing efforts (expense) will be minimal because it is such a small specialized group.
RR - I dont know about you but I think investors should take investment advice from the writers at Seeking Alpha. This article was written today http://seekingalpha.com/article/769151-6-healthcare-stocks-with-pending-august-catalysts?source=yahoo and the writers profile is very impressive. He has a B.A. in Art History and graduated in March 2012. He was also on the track and field team which would prepare him for the hurdles the stock market has to offer. I really wanted to talk with him live to get his advice on some of my other investments but his father answered the phone and said his mom was putting him to sleep and I would have to call back tomorrow. Strange that he still lives with his parents...
Thank you for your sensible comments. I have been watching TLON for several months and thought it had run away from me recently to almost $2. I agree this is a rare gift for long-term investors (if there is such a connotation these days for investing). It would have been great to buy <$1, but risk/reward seems heavily skewed to reward.