Demand will not drop long term. The emerging markets are becoming richer, China is not slowing down, and the world is producing $2mm bbl less than they are using per day. It is too hard to trade into a political event that happens a few times per century (the demand for democracy in the Middle East). You don't trade an inflection point of a major trend by "timing" month-to-month demand that is already known by all market participant. Instead, you find a trend early and act appropriately.