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Sunwin Stevia International, Inc. Message Board

  • jacob.dubois jacob.dubois Oct 28, 2008 2:46 PM Flag

    Dilution

    Does anyone in here have any rational thoughts on the dilution of this company? Are there just too many shares outstanding for the stock price to ever recover?

    Like I said in an earlier post, 87MM shares outstanding means Sunwin needs about $30MM of earnings and a 15x P/E to get up to $5 per share and attract institutional investors.

    Any chance of getting to $30MM earnings with debt or internal cash flow? If they keep issuing equity at these prices the stock price will remain forver in the toilet.

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    • I think you also need to add in the 29M additional shares for Qufu. I'm not sure of the revenue that qufu will bring but it is tied to generating $5M in earnings over the next 3 years. I would love to see a PR saying that SUWN just signed up some of these other big players such as GLG and PureCircle to take their waste product off their hands. The margins on stevia are currently non existant but if demand dramatically increases that could change in a hurry. I'm really wishing I had more money to put in at these price levels but I'm tapped out.

    • Wait, I would not throw the Chinese in the same bowl of "non available credits" like us. Sunwin still maintains an triple A rating at the Chinese government and also Singapore seems to slowly gets back its liquidity.

    • Check out the credit markets...middle-market cash flow lending is non-existent right now. ABLs are getting done, but only by a few lenders who are cherry-picking and lending at lower leverage multiples and with much more restrictive default covenants than in recent years. I deal with this everyday in the M&A marketplace.

      It seems like I may have asked for a little too much from this crowd...not really interested in hearing about revenue potential or an introduction to the concept of debt financing...would really just like to hear someone's take on how and when Sunwin can increase its earnings PER SHARE.

    • If you are that hung up on the share count you should move on.
      What is more important is the market cap.

      If Stevia becomes the sweetener used in all diet drinks, that makes no difference?

      If all major cereal makers used Stevia on their cereals?

      What if everyone used OnlySweet to sweeten their tea or coffee?

      This stock is selling for 12 cents.

      Did you see the latest presentation and the breakdown on prices and grades of Stevia they can produce? possible revenues of 56 million next year just on raw stevia.

      • 2 Replies to shiftsuper175607
      • "If you are that hung up on the share count you should move on. What is more important is the market cap."

        Hilarious. Let's drive the stock price with more puffery about diabetes and religious references.

        Come on. As I requested in October, before being rebuffed by shift's non-sensical yet eerily over-confident and bordering on arogant overtures, does anyone have any tangible hypotheses on how/when Sunwin achieves $30MM in EBIT without significantly diluting the stock. Yes, shift, issuing more stock for services rendered is dilution...check the posts from last year before responding with more snide remarks about how "maybe I should own other stocks". Some of us are investors and aren't concerned with your fantasies about getting rich because it's a "diabetes play". Banks and PEGs are typically interested in earnings PER SHARE.

        This post is intended to generate discussions about capital structure AS WELL AS revenue potential. Shifts need not apply.

        Thanks.

        Boom.

      • I'm a bit confused by your comments on the market cap being more important - it seems you believe that companies with 10 billion shares outstanding trading at $0.10 per share ($1B market cap) are on par with companies that have 100 million shares outstanding that trade for $10 per share ($1B market cap)...generally they are not. Eventually the share price needs to rise in order for the company to get listed on an exchange, attract institutional investors & research coverage, decrease their WACC, etc.

        I'm a fan of Sunwin as well and 30K shares long which are deeply in the red so I'm not leaving the stock anytime soon. Just looking for comments from other bankers/CFAs on whether the capital structure can make a recovery from here or if they've stretched it out too far already.