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Corinthian Colleges Inc. Message Board

  • news_to_use news_to_use Jul 7, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    I Bought - The Sold Schools worth At Bare Minimum $325 Million or $3.66 per share!

    If you do the math with revenue of $1.48 Billion and discount it by 14%(reduced enrollment) and then discount that by 12%(teach out schools) you get $1.12 Billion. Discount that further by 15%(additional distress factor) and you get $950 million. At a sale of .7 times revenues(extremely cheap), you get $665 million sales price. Subtract $140 million in debt plus subtract $200 million in settlements and contingencies, you get $325 million. That is 16. times what COCO is trading for here or $3.66 a share! They scared you people with negative articles and words but the 8-K looks pretty boilerplate and the agreement is very good for company and cash flow. Nasdaq delisting notice is meaningless. Lots of shorts are now trapped and this could explode up at any moment. Thanks for the shares!

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    • I am now reducing contingencies and settlements by $50 million (remember teach out went to only 5% also) The company is now worth $4.84 a share.

    • Longtimefollower- It is you who is in dreamland but about to become nightmare. Do you understand how hard it is to track down 150,000 students that ED wanted info on? In a large poll by public colleges there was only 27% response rate. They have assigned an additional 100 people to track students down and have alreay supplied most of the info, thus the agreement. Once they no longer need advance on 21 day hold, ED stops monitor. When Heald sells which could be any day, you will wake up to nightmare, shorty.

    • Longtimefollower- It is you who is in dreamland but about to become nightmare. Do you understand how hard it is to track down 150,000 students that ED wanted info on? In a large poll by public colleges there was only 27% response rate. They have assigned an additional 100 people to track students down and have alreay supplied most of the info, thus the agreement. Once they no longer need advance on 21 day hold, ED stops monitor. When Heald sells which could be any day, you will wake up to nightmare, shorty.

    • You're in dreamland. The company said nothing about shareholders. They are in a FIRE SALE of assets, which will get much less than you say. And the wind down expenses will be extraordinary.

      The stock is trading at 20 cents for a reason. My guess is there is less than a 10% chance that shareholders get anything. "The powers that be" have decided to drive a stake through the heart of COCO. That means that they "plan" on shareholders getting nothing....in order to "teach a lesson" to the "evil people" that were running this thing.....and to the other for profits.

      I hope Masimino is charged with criminal fraud. Separately, I feel the company hid from investors, and downplayed the fact that ED was looking for very specific info, that the company was not providing. And WHY weren't they providing it. Isn't THAT a breach of fiduciary duty, in its own right? Ignoring the goverment, that supplies 85% of your revenues?

      Basically, ED decided "You don't provide us with information when we ask for it, we close you down." If that is what they decided (that the clowns at the top of COCO will NEVER run a for profit college again, essentially), they are SEEKING to ensure that shareholders get nothing. And that WILL be the outcome here. This is not a good time to be selling these assets.

      • 3 Replies to longtimefollower
      • It is you who is in dreamland but about to become nightmare. Do you understand how hard it is to track down 150,000 students that ED wanted info on? In a large poll by public colleges there was only 27% response rate. They have assigned an additional 100 people to track students down and have alreay supplied most of the info, thus the agreement. Once they no longer need advance on 21 day hold, ED stops monitor. When Heald sells which could be any day, you will wake up to nightmare, shorty.

      • It is you who is in dreamland but about to become nightmare. Do you understand how hard it is to track down 150,000 students that ED wanted info on? In a large poll by public colleges there was only 27% response rate. They have assigned an additional 100 people to track students down and have alreay supplied most of the info, thus the agreement. Once they no longer need advance on 21 day hold, ED stops monitor. When Heald sells which could be any day, you will wake up to nightmare, shorty.

      • Longtime:

        First I congratulate you on getting out at the first huge sign of bad news. You pared your losses and were willing to see things for what they are. Second, I can't agree with you more in these comments. You are absolutely seeing things for exactly what they are.

        And unfortunately, management got to dupe way too many students and way to many investors along the way. There was a lack of transparency and purposeful deception at every step.

        To your 10% chance, I have 20%, but even with my 20%, I see limited upside, as the ED is calling the shots, and they are gonna make sure everyone is paid, including the States AG, long before shareholders get a dime. So even if by miracle, there are significant asset sales, the result will not be good for shareholders.

        Anyway, I applaud you for your being smart and avoiding further losses. Good job!

    • After the news today, the 12% teach-out discount is being reduced to 5%. The schools, after all discounting and contingencies and settlements, and net of all debt, are now worth $379.45 million or $4.27 a share.

    • I think that most of the selling today has been shorting, which is very good for us longs. They are the fuel that will push us way up - it's just a matter of time. I've been doing this since 1987 and I know exactly what is coming.

    • Hell, I'll take just $1.50 and still be happy. This means my $150 mil in net asset sale is not so highly unrealistic after all. I give more discounts than what you do.

    • I agree. So many negative posts, like they want my shares!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
COCO
0.0217-0.0014(-5.91%)Feb 27 3:58 PMEST

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