I've been trying to do research on this company and can't find out how they make a profit. They had something called Estrasorb that they were licensing and manufacturing but it turned out it cost more to manufacture the product than the money they received in royalties so they had to shut it down.
I tried going back twelve years and I can't find out what NVAX actually sells to make money.
Also, it appears that it will be 3-4 years (if all the experiments go positive and that's a big IF) before they can have anything come to market. It doesn't seem they have enough cash to last that long.
Am I missing something? Is that why the stock keeps falling after positive PRs?
You complain about Allin and you act almost like him. Allin supposedly said "My work here is done" and he is still here using the same ID. You are still here using different IDs.
That's why I said "almost".
I see it the same way as you. I haven't bought any NVAX because any additional equity funding is going to be very costly and dilutive to the current stockholders. You're probably looking at convertible preferred stock which if anyones been on the wrong end of that deal knows the share price always has a huge drop. NVAX is involved in a deal that is a long shot and which could bring in huge cash flow without any cost to the company. This is a royalty deal in India with a company called Bharat that involves poultry vaccines rather than human vaccines. I don't know what's going on with that deal, if anything is going on, but if that happens, you're looking at billions of chickens getting vaccinated and NVAX getting a piece of that. It's pure cash flow. I'm not a big fan of cash burn, which is why I own shares in the NVAX partner in the Bharat deal.
Shhhhhhh! Keep it quiet. As long as the general public doesn't know this, the better. As long as they keep pushing out glowing PRs that is all that matters.
As long as they take two weeks off for Christmas and New Year's while others work, they can live on the fat off the hog.
LONG AND STRONG NVAX
For persons with nugatory experience, the words "sales projection" are probably just chinese words. But to the more intelligent savvy persons with envisage it means the culmination and execution of a plan.
There are those on this message board that spend an inordinate amount of time retrogressing, rather than trying to look ahead and see all the incontrovertible facts.
Then, there are those investors, the more acquainted, that can see the image of the future and can conceive the modicum particles, and mentally fashion the pieces into sections, and sections into the final image, investors who are trained on future outcome, not yesterdays happenstance.
Pure and simple:
1) NVAX filed an IND at the very earliest date.
2) NVAX stated there were going to be four (4) new vaccine candidates before the end of this year. Three (3) have already happened. I have no reason to doubt the fourth will not also be announced.
3) NVAX finished the first stage of human testing of it's bird flu vaccine. It was a success. The second stage is underway, and I have no reason to believe it will not be equally as successful.
4) GE has pledged to cover the expenses for the construction of NVAX's GMP pilot manufacturing facility, and much, much more.
Once the final human trials has been concluded, and I have no reason to believe it will not be successful, the PPS will be in the double figures, $10, $20, $30, $50 etc., etc. NVAX shares can be had today at 3.33, not a bad price for a stock which just may be worth 10 times or more it's present value in the future.
NVAX, LONG AND STRONG !!!!!!!!!!!!!
NVAX needs to be viewed as an emerging vaccine research and development company. Prior to the new management team it was a failing niche pharma company with a product portfolio of minimal (that's being kind on my part) commercial value: Estrasorb and Androsorb, topical homorne replacement formulations.
The new CEO did a commendable job in changing the business model to vaccines and making the painful cuts necessary to survive, viz., firing the sales force and getting rid of the two dogs in the porfolio.
Everything I've seen for the past two years has been solid both in terms of the R & D program and commercial strategy. The new management team is showing a maturity not seen in many other companies in a similar stage of development.
NVAX will get revenues in the near-term under the Emergency Use Act, which allows the government to purchase drugs & biologicals not yet approved by the FDA. Successful Phase II results are necessary, however. Other governments will likely follow.
The seasonal flu vaccine will not likely be launched until 2011, since Phase I trials begin in 08 and a Phase III trials will be necessary.
Other vaccne candidates will require either NIH participation to undertake the trial or NVAX will require a partner to provide upfront money and milestone payments. I look for 7-10 year development programs for each candidate.
I don't comment on share price. I do believe, however, that NVAX is on solid footing in all aspects. (the appropriate disclaimers and caveats apply)
"The seasonal flu vaccine will not likely be launched until 2011."
In the Oppenheimer & Co. report, Kevin DeGeeter wrote:
"The seasonal flu vaccine will be launched in 2010 with peak sales of $200-250mm."
In short, what you are saying is that they don't have any thing to sell until 2012 the earliest.
You say, "NVAX will get revenues in the near-term under the Emergency Use Act,..." How do you know this? Are you making the government decision?
At least I know this isn't where I want to put my money into. No present revenue stream in the near future and a toss of a coin if all the trials are successful. Even if they are, the FDA can still decline if the results are not what they say fit.
Do most "investors" realize this is gambling?