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Novavax, Inc. Message Board

  • sdhoolteach2000 sdhoolteach2000 Feb 2, 2013 1:59 PM Flag

    Determination

    It's difficult to determine which company, if any , would be interested in owning nvax. AstraZeneca looks to be a good fit because of their MAB against RSV. The problem with AZN is their prime money making products are coming off patent in 2014 and the timing and money could leave AZN in a position of not being able to make a serious offer.

    GSK,on the other hand,has a strategy of having active vaccine programs in developing countries such as Kena, India,South Africa etc. and they are in a much better financial position to bid for a small company like Novavax. I would think an interest in nvax is warranted,but it's just a guess.

    Other companies may also be interested in nvax, one such company being Merck.

    Novavax is not willing to inform us of anything,much less pharma's interest in the RSV vaccine,so we can only make inferences as the stock price declines in a robust market.

    It's sad.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • AZN could easily fork out $1-$2 billion for NVAX, if they wanted to. They could use cash, AZN shares, or a combination.

      • 2 Replies to lostinspace.likeyou
      • AZN needs to rebuild a pipeline. They will not do a major deal. So a small deal (comparatively) with NVAX would make a lot of sense. With Medimmune as one of their holdings, NVAX could tuck nicely into that portfolio. On the other hand, AZN has overpaid for some acquisitions so they are under pressure to make sure that whatever clinical level pharma company they buy, the product must get through trials to market. you can bet they are highly interested and studying nvax very hard right now.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • lost, even if AZN had the monies I not sure they would use it to buy nvax because they have a pipeline that needs to be funded.

        A conference, a letter, anything giving shareholders an idea about what's happening inside and outside the company would be welcome. Remaining silent adds to the uncertainty surrounding the decline in the share price.

        It's not good.

        Sentiment: Hold

    • Teach,

      I agree with you. But, anything NVAX tell us will become public knowledge, obviously. So, they can't tell us more. Why wouldn't they tell us more, if they could?

      Well, O.K. It's possible that they give preference to institutional investors over retail. They probably do. If they didn't, they would lose their support, and then the stock would tank big time.

      Besides, they told us accurately about their progress and their difficulties. We know about B/Brisbane. They can't keep us updated on this because they run the risks Rahul ran before them. It's best that they don't comment on their progress until they're done and ready to resume seasonal flu phase II.

      As for RSV, they can't tell us more either. I can tell you that the RSV/flu combo on the elderly is not guaranteed until the results are out. But, they won't tell you that. It's not common business politics. They said that the combo is promising. Some people see "promising" as a done deal, but it's not.

      • 1 Reply to lostinspace.likeyou
      • Yup, there is risk every where. Nothing is a done deal until it is a done deal.

        I say even the RSV on women phase II is not a done deal.

        Everyone thought Celsion's liver cancer drug was a done deal, until it didn't work, and their stock tanked 80% in 1 day. Most thought the seasonal flu was a done deal, but it wasn't. I think that is why this stock is being punished because it is taking so long for them to get it back on track. There is no news right now to release. So the stock is being manipulated and the shorts are just kicking some butt, as they should in this vacuum. I think if the seasonal flu was on track, this stock would have jumped to $3 from the then $2.40.

        Another day in the life of a vaccine small cap. Danger danger Mr. Robinson.

 
NVAX
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