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Novavax, Inc. Message Board

  • clarkjohn18 clarkjohn18 May 22, 2014 4:19 AM Flag

    putting it on the line

    As I posted a few months back- I've been considering putting my entire savings into nvax for some time. To provide some context- I'm 26 with time to let the company develop and would basically put aside enough cash to let the position sit while the company went through the remaining RSV phase trials and presumable executed on its commercial launch. While short term thinkers can raise their predictable arguments, its very difficult to put forth a legitimate argument as to why nvax will be of less value 3 years from now than it is today. I don't think anyone believes that, and in all honesty I dont blame the short sellers from doing what they did recently, because it was a smart tactic. A scared market is easy to head fake and they did just that by shaking out the weak hands who got on board late. So- my plan is this.I hit LT capital gains on June 20th on vnda which has been a wonderful investment despite its recent downturn for me. Got in at $4 and sold several positions in the high teens but held a core position trying to escape uncle sam/. It appears to have cost me for now, but I will wait. I beleive I will have another shot to pick up nvax shares in the low $4's and that vnda will recover over the next 4-6 months. When it does- that money will come to nvax for the long term. Very difficult to doubt this company's future when u consider the facts. Thank you for all the info and help that has been offered here by the veteran posters/investors. Of course, I have done my DD and consulted with some trusted sources, but its always nice to pick up a few tips and this board offers that, perhaps more so than any other board that I've seen on yahoo.


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    • Risk is not determined by diversity. It's determined by your plan. One stock or an etf of 1000 are the same... What matters is quelling fear and greed and sticking to your plan (aka using a stop loss and scaling out of your position on the way up). Protect your downside and you are good to go, regardless of the beta.. Make sure volume is liquid enough to get your order filled without serious slippage... The upside is huge obviously

      • 1 Reply to keuwiefuiefe
      • Diversity protects against the effects of risks that went sour. High tech companies, especially biotechs, can get adverse events that cause the SP to open with a major gap down or up. If you get a gap down of 50% you have to get a 100% return on that money just to break even again.

        Greed leads to disaster and one of the major routes is concentrating everything in a single investment to "maximize gains" for getting that that also maximizes losses. Avoiding losses is every bit as important to investing as achieving gains.

    • Good luck on your investments. I don't think you need any investment advice if you got in a $4 stock and rode it to the teen's, we should probably be getting advice from you. LOL. And you're only 26 years old. I'm impressed you even know to wait it out for LT capital gains.

      Hell, I didn't have any money when I was 26. I think I bought my first house when I was that age, and my wife and I barely scrounged up $5k to put a down payment on our first house.

      I've never had any problems with investing heavily into a stock that I believed in, but it does carry much more risk than if you would spread it around. And I really think that a stock and its investor needs to be on the same wavelength. What I mean by that is you need to invest in something that will offer the type of return you are looking for.

    • Most people will probably disagree with me, but since you are only 26, I say go for it. If it doesn't work out, you still have time to recover with so many years of work in front of you. Also, it doesn't sound like you are married or have kids, so again, I say go for it. You only live once. Sometimes it is worth taking a chance in life.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Diversity is the key to wealth accumulation. Don't invest in a single investment. NVAX is a winner, but who thought the Soviet Union would not be around today.

    • Over many years, I have taken long positions in a few stocks that I believed in.....whatever you do enjoy it,live and believe it...but do you dd...I currently hold a long position .... NVAX, INSM & AMSLV Best Wishes

    • There is the distinct possibility that there could be a bad trial result, no matter how much you think there couldn't be a chance. There were some less-than-perfect ones 6-8 years ago. In short, it's always good business practice to hide any #$%$ in the armor. I'm jaded, NVAX is just one of a few "sure things" that I've held over the years. If you hit one in three, you're doing well. My trick is to "actively" hold long term - mostly timed to news-cycles etc. (lots of "etc."), always keeping a base amt. of shares. With an impressive looking small-cap, you should come out ahead over time. Novavax has the added feature of all the hysteria generated over the next pandemic-de jour. If my shares of NVAX went to $0 tomorrow, I'd be super bummed - and very surprised, but after 8plus years, I'm ahead by multiples... I've been lucky (bird flu) but NVAX has been my 2nd biggest cash-cow in the last ten years.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Don't know how much you have saved up but I'm sure you know of AAPL. There's a co. about to change the picture experience on their devices, that symbol is PXLW. You may not know of sickle cell disease but there's another biotech co. In phase III trading under a buck that Baker Brothers just began buying. Eventually that co. Will also bring clot busting drugs to the market for stroke/heart attack. NVAX doesn't have the only great story but they do have an outstanding management team, best in yrs that they've been public. Same with those other two co. MSTX's new CEO Brian Cully is great and PXLW just brought on a ex- Apple director........

    • clark - despite the obvious merits of NVAX, don't put all of your investable assets into any one stock. Rconre states the case well ...


      Sentiment: Buy

    • History would indicate that no one should put their entire savings in any one stock.
      No matter how sure it seems, something can go wrong.
      Witness Enron, GM, Citi, even AT&T at one time.
      I feel much like you do, that NVAX looks like a sure thing.
      Problem is, nothing is a sure thing.
      My own personal rule is, never put more than ten percent of your investible assets in any one stock, but others would say even that is too much.
      Certainly, make your own decision and do what you think is right for you, but be cautious in putting too much in one place.
      Good luck to you.

      Sentiment: Hold

5.62-0.16(-2.77%)May 26 4:00 PMEDT