i think billyjoe's posts are pretty insightful and well grounded------i'am not going to short a 6% growing yield (for now) in a 1% bank deposit world, but this is the last MLP i'd want to go long with new money----------the posters on this board mostly have large longterm gains and don't want to pay the taxman----Billyjoe is saying that the KMP is essentially eating its seed corn in order to show near term earnings accretion----this is being accomplished by skimping on maintenence and shifting gradually into shorter lived assets such as over the hill oil fields-----this game can go on for quite a while before the piper must be paid, long enough to wear down most shortsellers-----aside from namecalling, the only rebuttal to billy's arguments has been to site Kinder's fantastic track record in the PAST and the fact that a billionaire takes a $1 salary-----but i'am can't earn a nickel from what was-------KMP today, is a bloated, too big to grow, low yielding MLP that is mortgaging its future to make its present look good according to Billy-------his arguments should be considered seriously IMO-----hope this doesn't put me on your shit list RRB
I'll state that the comments about KMP being able to grow at the rates it did in the past are probably correct(i.e. the law of large numbers).
The comments about KMI/KMP skimping on maintenance are off base and innaccurate.
As far as KMI getting into short term deals, the SACROC and Yates fields, while over the hill as you called them, retain huge amounts of oil. In fact, these are just the opposite of short term deals. They require many many years of planning and preparation to get them to peak production. Anyone in the oil biz knows that the amount of oil that can be removed from regular lifting methods in quite low in comparison to the total oil in place. Now, that oil needs to be removed by some tertiary method which is more costly, but Kinder Morgan has a very unique play that is a goldmine. Look at the growth that it shows q after q. Will probably be some time before the field actually peaks.....