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Kinder Morgan Energy Partners Message Board

  • marksearnings marksearnings Apr 15, 2009 9:57 PM Flag

    Earnings Missed Badly Why not down more?

    Can someone explain why with an earning miss this large that this stock isn't down 5-10%?

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    • Chart,

      We did sell our APL. Hopefully we will be able to take at least part of it as a loss, since we sold some other stock for a large gain and hope to offset part of it.

      This is the first MLP we‘ve sold, so I hope we don’t get hit badly.

      Do you think it’s still a bargain at these low prices?

    • Re to peach
      "SGU just isn't the sort of MLP I thought you'd buy..."

      SGU was a "mad money" lottery play just for fun. I put in only $1K. As a retired old coot, I have no new money of subatance to play in the market. I am 100% cash in my 401-K.

      I bought some SGU when they announced their first dist in a very long time. (1-23-09)They are so far under the radar, few people would notice. I am up about 25%. I do own GLW as my only stock holding and it is up +66% this year. (they pay my pension)

      As to APL, it is too late to sell and they will likely throw all the bad stuff into this Q and write it off. If I had investing cash now I might buy on any dip. They will be late announcing and that is a sign of bad news. Not that it is new, just making it public. If the price goes down when they announce the dist, I would buy. IMHO.

      Happy investing.


      ps the AMZ index was up over 17% year to date before today. Wheeee! Add another +1.56% today. EPD up over 4% today.

    • Hi Chart
      That surprises me. I've been reading your posts for about 3 years now and SGU just isn't the sort of MLP I thought you'd buy.
      Other than SGU I own the same MLP's you do except I also have NS.
      BTW what do you think will become of APL? I'm kinda tempted to average down here.


    • Chart,
      Not that I think analysts are very bright, but Merrill has KMP as a core holding after their latest reporting.

    • Re to enterpriser
      "KMP ahs made people like me and chart wealthy."

      Well, did OK but I was a bit late to the party.

      For 10 years
      KMP +418%
      AMZ index +237%

      That is, with compounding.
      KMP 17.9% per year average
      AMZ index 12.9% per average

      But there is always Buffett.
      He averaged 1.5% per year average.

      Eat your heart out Buffett.

      Oh well, let's not get caught up in facts.

      Happy investing.


      ps put some "mad money" in SGU when thy paid a distribution. Year to date, up over +30%. But not many $ at risk.

    • How about some history more than 6 months. KMP ahs made people like me and chart wealthy.

    • Let's see...... Missed earnings expectations.......terminals lower than expected business.......... flat quarterly distribution....... You know what? This stock should be dive bombing, but evidently there are numerous "ENRON" stockholders who own KMP and they think KMP is going to make a tremendous comeback this year. They lost with ENRON, and now they are going to lose with KMP.

      Be smart - take your loss, and buy OKS. They have a good balance sheet and good forward outlook for their product.

      SELL while you can or watch ENRON history repeat itself with KMP.

      • 2 Replies to tabman1123
      • Hi Tabeman---I am your neighbor in Pittsford.
        I just sld. my KMP. My reasoning is that unlike some pipeline stocks KMP is also in very significant ancillary and some unassociated businesses. These appear to change the character of the investment and make it much more subject to economic conditions. I refer to thier substantial terminaling operations which do make a good contribution in "good" times but were a drag at this time. Beacause of this the upcomming distribution is mostly from capital, not profits. When this is paid the stock will no doubt fall accordingly. It will probably be a "wash". I might return if economic conditions change for the better.
        Since I do not forsee a prolonged period of prosperity it is hard to visualize a significant contribution from the terminal operations..

      • You sound desperate.

    • It is not down more because investors have not yet analyzed the q1 financials and are blinded by the 1.05 quarterly payout. The 1.05 payout is more than dcf for q1. My bet is that you will see downgrades soon. Have patience, it will go down more!!

      • 1 Reply to footnotereader
      • 3 brokerages have put out reports since the Q1 financial news release, and none of them downgraded. All did revise other details of their forecasts.

        S&P reiterated Strong Buy, maintained price objective = $59, lowered 2009 earnings projections to $2.04/unit from $2.36/unit

        Citi reiterated their Hold recommendation, reduced their target price to $44.

        Morningstar also put out a rather uninteresting report, with no specific changes to their forecasts.

    • because it said it would continue to pay the return of capital and even increased it thru 09 and expected their plight to improve

      in this market that is all thats required

      if kmp tanks ill back up the truck and double up

      • 2 Replies to jrhot2chat
      • Agree; paying $1.05 for the 2nd time this year, and reiterating they expect to maintain that level distribution throughout this year, was good news for the market. It was certainly not NEW news (KMP said exactly that in February, and also in November, but it still comes across as news today).

        I do think their press release tried to make it sound like this was an increase in the distribution; it was not. They paid $1.05 in Feb, now have confirmed they will do so again in May, and expect to pay $1.05 in both August and November, for a $4.20 total for the year. An 8.79% tax deferred yield ain't bad in today's market!

        KMP's guidance predicts the 2010 total dist. to be $4.40 (low end of their range, assumes $68/barrel oil).

      • Obama's cap and trade and carbon tax will ruin this company, and all domestic energy companies. The greens will have it; billions for half assed research on global warming while punishing the legitimate energy companies ("I want to bankrupt the coal industry," Obama).
        Oil drillers will be denied their capital cost depreciation.
        This "community organizer" is an idiot.