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Kinder Morgan Energy Partners Message Board

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  • enronbuddy enronbuddy Aug 16, 2012 9:43 PM Flag

    Dropdown Math Fail

    This is exactly what is going on at KMP. Depreciation isn’t just a tax dodge to minimize taxes…it represents the true cost to put an asset into service for its useful life. If there is no profit after depreciation…then it isn’t worth doing. By ignoring depreciation…you are pretending that a pipeline is a house….that it will have the same or greater value in 20 years than it does today and that simply is not a realistic assumption. We may disagree on the remaining life of these assets…if you have reason to believe there are 40 years of life remaining, it would be legitimate to reduce the depreciation accordingly…but to simply ignore it is just bad analysis. In time…whether it is 10 years, or 20 or 30, KMP will start retiring these pipelines. They (the partnership) will never last that long, but let’s just say they did.
    The year is 2032, and let’s say a $1B pipeline is deemed unsafe for operation….or perhaps the eagleford play is simply done….and has but a trickle of gas is left to transport so it’s simply unprofitable to operate. Now, you have a huge problem….because first of all, it’s going to take a lot of money, now, and in the future to shut this guy down with no future revenues….and uh oh….you have $500M of bonds due next month…directly related to the 2012 acquisition. So that asset you have been pretending is still worth $1B by ignoring depreciation now has zero revenue, is going to take tens of millions to shut down, and worst of all… have an immediate need to come up with $500M to pay off the loans you never bothered to pay off…. Because you had to make your “distributions” I don’t know the answer….but you LP owners better be sure you aren’t on the hook when they can’t roll the debt….just sayin….you might want to know for sure.