This has been an interesting ride for me as well. I'm almost thru 11 quarters. I was hoping we would have been back to $9.00 6 months ago but obviously was dreaming. that last offering did take the wind out of the sail for sure.
I was thinking that with the last guidence given stating .25 for all of next year, it would be the right incentive for the move up and it has been climbing. Since I'm now ahead with the dividends I have recieved I'll wait to see where she goes. If we lose our .25 I'm go to move on.
Well, I think that's in the bank for 2011, barring a total disaster. Logically, with a large portion of the loan book rolling over by the end of 2012, and that money either re-written with stronger terms or re-lent, there's going to be more income, plus they're still sitting on most of the cash hoard, two little loans is all.
jdb makes a good point about these "creeping" dilutions going on, they've sold a lot of shares over the past couple years, but I'm thinking management might be figuring up all that extra income, and then backing into how many shares still can be paid the buck, and then being motivated to offer the extra shares.
As to WHY they do these offerings, jdb, I can't fathom it, the math was obvious to me the first second I heard about their plans for the initial post-crash offering. It just doesn't work for a REIT to do this, not unless the capital is used for expansion, which is not in the cards anytime soon.