there are reports that the US will be able to supply it's own energy by 2020. I am sure some of you have seen this. Even if this does not happen the US definitely will not need to import as much oil as it does now. The nat gas drilling seems to be already capping the nat gas price because of the supply coming to market. Any thought on how this could effect oil and gas MLPS in the next few years?
There is no doubt that first North America and then the USA will be energy independent in the next ten years. Canada will develop its' oil sands with or without Keystone, and Mexico will tap additional oil fields in the Gulf of Mexico and in its' territory across the Rio Grande from the Eagle Ford Shale. And if Keystone isn't built, who cares? Heavy oil from Canada is already arriving in USA refineries via trains. It's also important to one that oil from the Bakken in ND is being shipped via unit trains (75,000 barrels) to refineries on both coasts and on the Gulf. It is illegal to export crude oil from the USA. However, you can export refined products like diesel fuel and gasoline, and we do in great amounts. The USA also is expanding in a massive way the export of natural gas liquids like propane and butane, and in 2015 begins exporting liquified natural gas. 2015 also sees the expanded Panama Canal opening to larger tankers carrying cargoes to Asia. Interestingly enough, China has now passed the USA as the world's largest importer of crude oil. This is real important to Valenzuela whose heavy sulfur crude exported to the USA is losing out to heavy sulfur oil from Canada. And do not worry about the price of natural gas in the USA getting too low. The natural gas drillers have already cut back their activities resulting in a decline in natural gas inventories. Natural gas pricing is now around $4 with Goldman Sachs predicting $4.50 in the next year. Natural gas drillers are concentrating on wet gas areas where natural gas liquids given them more returns. Another trend to keep an eye on is the replacement of diesel by natural gas in trucks,buses, and trains. Buffet's Burlington Northern is experimenting with natural gas as a locomotive fuel, and large trucks and buses are using it,too. Even plentiful propane is being used to replace diesel in some generators. So, bottom line is MLPs are entering a "Golden Age Decade" IMO. I've bet the ranch n it,too.
We continuously import/export with Mexico. Their refineries cannot refine their oil so it is sent to the US refineries and shipped back in the form of gas products. In return we export high grade US crude to Mexico to be refined and sent back as gasoline.