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Corning Inc. Message Board

  • thosehayden thosehayden May 11, 2002 8:54 PM Flag

    GLW - BUY, SELL or JUMP

    Well, I have been losing my ass in the stock market lately. Just getting creamed. Corning @ 6 dollars - what do you do?

    Its almost to the point of wondering if Corning will be in business in a couple of years. A short seller(read I want things to sound as bad as they possibly can) says GLW is worth 3.50. Lets say 4 dollars.

    I don't think Corning is going to go out of business. Even if they don't sell another strand of fiber, I think they will somehow stay in business. We'll be a lot smaller company, but I think they will make it.

    Alright, it could go down another couple of bucks. GLW has a tangible book value of about $4 dollars, maybe a touch less. So from here I'm risking another couple of dollars.

    But if Corning stays in business you would think things would have to get better. In the telecom arena I really don't see how things can get much worse. And if they do stay in business I bet there will be fewer providers of fiber in 5 years.

    Okay, lets say things don't get better for quite some time, which is very possible. Corning could trade around 5 dollars for years. But they are cutting so much that if revenues ever do pick up almost all of that revenue will flow to the bottom line, and boom earnings go through the roof.

    If revenues would increase from 4 billion a year to say 6 to 7 billion a year there is a good chance that GLW could come close to earning a dollar a share, and boom we are right back at 30.

    So over the next 3 years what are the better odds GLW going out of business or revenues increasing by 50%. Again I don't think they will go out of business, but you might be risking 2 points of downside verse 20 points of upside. Its too late to sell, the odds don't favor you. From here on out I think one has to look for places to buy if they think GLW can last.

    Remember there are always morons buying like crazy at the top, and morons selling like crazy at the bottom.

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    • Both short term ranges are far too high, will see high $5 on Monday, wil probably make a new low in the near term, best case for August about $7.00, maybe, and that's being generous and only if they announce good news on fiber contracts, revenues up. Long term range may be too low IF GLW survives and telecom fiber picks up here and in China.

    • Re to:
      "You seem to be capable of doing your own research, so if I were you I'd start checking on the 4 you mentioned. Myself, I'd dump WCOM, keep MRK and start looking at AOL and PFE real hard. MRK is paying a decent dividend and may be getting undervalued here. "

      Good thoughts. Should sell WCOM and take loss for tax purposes.

      Did not mention also has Munder Net Net (MNNCX) and Federated High Yield Bonds (FHBBX)(junk bonds). All bought in 1999. Do not have to look them up to know no profits here.

      I do have tax person to do planning. In 2000 I had small 401K payout in a lump. Did my own taxes then and did estimated taxes for the quarter that I got the money. Did my taxes and found I had refund for over withholding, and had penalty for under withholding. Found if you do not do estimated taxes for all quarters, you have to do a 9 page math explanation as to why. Did not have to pay penalty, but swore not to try to do taxes again. I must have made less than quarter per hour for my time spent doing that.

    • Re to:
      "Hey Chart-When a person passes on and leaves a stock or stocks to another person the cost value is established at time of death."
      Yes and NO. My tax person told me can choose method. One is dod and other is 6 months later. In the case of WCOM which has gone from $2500 to $75. could sell and take loss. In this case DOD is best since was in 1999.

    • Re to:
      "Well, I have been losing my ass in the stock market lately. Just getting creamed. Corning @ 6 dollars - what do you do?"

      See post 72503. Then ask why did I not have these stocks? I did not have any in any of these groups listed. I do not know why. There are at least 500 stocks that are up double digit in 12 months. I guess a year ago these were just dumb value stocks with dividends. Oh well, water under the bridge.

      Any Comment?

      • 2 Replies to chartmakerus
      • Re to:
        "I did not have any in any of these groups listed. I do not know why."

        Because you weren't looking? Maybe, like many, you were looking to relive the heady days of the late 90s and didn't see it in companies like Maytag. I know I didn't.

        But I did pick up some utilities way back in early 2000 when they tanked, making their dividends very appealing. I can't believe I unloaded them for gains of 100% in a few cases and 50% in another. All this in just over a year. The only reason I bought them was because they were yielding 5% to as much as 8% and my dad had taught me to have dividends to cover your margin interest. Well I haven't had to worry about margin interest for over a year because I finally wised up enough to stop paying interest to watch my portfolio decrease in value.

        Looking back, I would have unloaded my tech to an even greater extent and paid more attention to cyclicals that were beaten down, even though their dividend yields didn't come close to the 4-5% minimum I had been looking for.

      • Great those have all gone up - ie past tense. Now they are too pricey and will probably be the next ones to go down. I have no interest in chasing stocks that have already gone up. I'm looking for the ones that have potential tomorrow, not the ones that had potential yesterday.

 
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