Wed, Aug 20, 2014, 6:05 PM EDT - U.S. Markets closed

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Corning Inc. Message Board

  • grimreaper_of_qcon grimreaper_of_qcon Sep 10, 2003 11:26 AM Flag

    G-L-W-C-R-A-S-H

    It's correction time for this overbought POS. GLW's drop is outpacing that of the overall market. Tell you something?

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Thanks for explaining.

    • Jenne,

      �wondering how you come up with $15 by 04�

      I think I suggested $15 near the end of Q1 of 04. You ask a good question, and my answer is going to be week.

      With that said, the $15 figure is based upon a subjective extrapolation of the price run GLW has experienced, supported by my expectations of Corning successfully accomplishing the things on the table. In that time frame I anticipate sequential positive announcements that will result in a continuing share price rise. I expect profits (after one time expenses, not before, which is better than what Corning has projected) reported starting Q3 and growing each quarter thereafter. I expect profitability to be followed by a debt instrument rating upgrade. I expect the debt due in 05 to be restructured to lower interest rates and a longer term. I expect larger fiber contracts to be placed, and the beginning of a ramp-up in fiber production. I do not expect increases in fiber contracts to start a ramp-up of reported profits until late in 04, growing in 05, but the orders, and thus the anticipation of resulting profit and impact on share price should occur sooner.

      This is not based in a sound value analysis, and as other posters have pointed out, traditional valuation approaches would suggest that there shouldn�t be a great deal of upward price movement for some time. As an example, I think Msg: 162832, posted by pharma_insider1, provides some serious ideas to think about regarding valuation. However, I can�t believe that if the things I refer to occur, that share price won�t respond accordingly.


      Possum

    • I like the prediction. As long as GLW meets the guidance and continues improving their operating results we could see those numbers easily.

    • I agree. Keep these useful messages coming.

    • I am a "fundamental" person who looks at the charts. This has been a long term thought.

      $9 by Sep 2003 (hit and pulled back)
      $9.50 by Dec 31, 2003
      $15.00 by Mar 31, 2004

      Nobody has a crystal ball and terrorist may have an influence (I hope not), but this is my best 'guesstamite' based upon the combined resourses of GLW and DC + new product cycles.

    • This is a most interesting exchange. There seems to be a consensus that GLW can be between $13 and $15 by March 2004 (I agree just on fundamentals). My question is, "How much is this due to DC and how much to the recovery of GLW alone?".

      I am learning a lot, so please keep this conversation going.

    • Re to:possum
      "Of course, dividends are not mandatory; DC could continue to reinvest its earnings. Presumably, however, DC�s Board of Directors will serve the interests of the shareholders that elect them."

      GLW and DOW each have one employee who sit on the board of Dow Corning. Of course they do not control all that much, but I am sure it helps.

      -chart-

    • Re Dow Corning:

      GLW recorded $25 million of "equity earnings" from Dow Corning in the 1st Q and for the first six months of 2003 recorded $42 million.

      Equity earnings are distinguished from dividends. No dividends are expected to be paid in 2003 (per the GLW 10Q report). Basically, the "equity earnings" refers to the 50% share GLW has in the earnings Dow Corning recorded during the respective quarters (i.e. Dow Corning earned $50 million in Q1 and $34 million in Q2, which is split with Dow Chemical) on the income statement. No actual cash was paid to GLW.

      Additionally, in 1995 GLW wrote-off the investment (worth $365.5 million at that time). They have now revalued the investment (wrote-off the difference) to $270 million. This is 1/2 of shareholders equity on the Dow Corning balance sheet.

      All-in-all, there will be no new major improvements based on Dow Corning emergence from bankruptcy. Some small improvements in equity income are possible (although 2Q equity income was less than Q1...$17 million compared to $25 million). Maybe some portion will eventually be paid in dividends, but nothing spectacular....

      Pharma

    • Chart,

      Thanks for the information. There are a couple of comments I would make:


      �They report like any public company and their numbers are public.�

      That is true, as stated, although I believe they would be considered a privately held corporation, and as far as I know, their public reporting is voluntary, not required. Perhaps some CPA out there can clarify, but I believe there are some reporting requirements applicable to companies that hold more than 20% but less than controlling interest in another company, and DC�s public reporting may serve to fulfill what would otherwise be a requirement on Dow and on Corning.


      �GLW has chosen to say it has no value for last several years.�

      That seems to be normal when the company in which the interest is owned files BK. I have assumed that it is not a choice, and that GAAP requires it, since the BK company is managed for the benefit of creditors and not owners. Perhaps some CPA out there can confirm that one way or the other also.


      �Once BK ends, DC would have to pay dividends on the stock.�

      Of course, dividends are not mandatory; DC could continue to reinvest its earnings. Presumably, however, DC�s Board of Directors will serve the interests of the shareholders that elect them.

      Again, thanks for the information. I always appreciate the value of your knowledge.


      Possum

    • CHART & POSSUM,

      Thank you for the information. It sounds to me that DC has the implant problem under control-the reason for Chap 11 in the 1st place. Chart suggest that they are putting their 'profits' into products and plants (nuts)under court supervision and are building valuable assets that will fall to the bottom lines of both Dow and GLW when DC is finally free of Chap 11.

      I don't know if anyone has good 'rumors' on the time table. A guess would be mid 2005.

      It seems to me that if DC is indeed building a valuable asset and both GLW and DOW are in effect gathering nuts and if we have a perfect storm by 2005 (Iraq under control, GLW doing well in a good economy, and DC leaving Chap 11) GLW will do very well.

      lws

    • View More Messages
 
GLW
20.70+0.36(+1.77%)Aug 20 4:00 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.