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Corning Inc. Message Board

  • imagery imagery Oct 24, 2007 12:07 PM Flag

    Only one surprise today ...

    Come on guys ... there is/was no manipulation.

    The stock is up some 25% for the year and on a pretty steady climb (with only one dip) over the last 10 months. That's pretty darn good. Yeah, they met expectations and were consistent with their guidance, but that was already built into the price.

    !!! The thing that killed the stock today was the warning GLW gave for next quarter !!!

    That's it. No conspiracy. Investors are selling because the outlook for the next 3 months looks flat and this is when one would expect LCD sales to be at their best given the holiday season. So unless something magical happens in Q4, there's nothing to invest in. You now have to invest based on events which will happen 6 months into the future and that's a little far out for this stock.

    If GLW gave no warnings on next quarter, I think the stock would have remained flat today. The stock price already had all the GOOD news built into it. In order for it to go up, they would of had to blow away expectations which we knew wasn't going to happen because GLW said they were going to come in a the high end of their guidance.

    I bought in thinking that Q4 would be better than Q3 and was epxecting a $28 price by end of the year which is why I bought in at $24.46. Eh, I was wrong. You win some and you lose some. I was thinking about staying in and hoping the 8% drop was a bit extreme, but it seems to be holding.

    Expect a few downgrades based on the Q4 warning. It's going to be a bit of a bumpy ride if you stay in. Good luck.

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    • "!!! The thing that killed the stock today was the warning GLW gave for next quarter !!!"

      I never saw a warning. Listened to Flaws on Bloomberg today. He said there was NEVER a quidance till today on 4th quarter. He said analysts were wrong to be agressive on their 4th quarter. He stated that everything was going as planned. Better than anticipated since panel makers didn't start revving up till late in the year. They are at 95% capacity. TV's, notebooks will be up. Housing and autos are down but will have NO effect on purchases!

    • >>> ok i give up ...im slow...trying to figure out what warning was given by GLW this AM...?? listened to the call...ill go back and read transcript ,,,but where/what was the warning... <<<

      "... but warned that its performance in the current quarter will fall short of Wall Street's expectations." (source: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071024/earns_corning.html?.v=8)

      >>> Your not telling the truth....I see at lease three dips to maybe 4...I should know I bought and sold on all of them this year...here is the chart check for yourself.. <<<

      Well, I guess this is relative. They way I see it, if you draw a trend line starting 01-JAN-2007 to now (about 10 months), there is one major dip around August. In all, GLW is up about 25% from January. I don't read too much into the little dips here and there.

      >>> You have a good argument but I would add to that we got hit extra hard from the poor performance overall in the market. <<<

      I would agree. The housing market numbers and the credit crunch are affecting all sectors (makes for some good buy opportunities!). That's why I'm kind of hoping GLW will recover a little bit before I make a decision on whether to hold, average down, or sell and invest elsewhere.

      >>> But I am not advising. Everything is IMHO. <<<
      Yeah, same here. Everything I say is my opinion only. Please don't make decision with your money based on my mumblings. Hype and expectations move a stock price more often than anything else (I was betting on Q4 being a good quarter for GLW, but it looks mundane at best). Right now, there isn't much in the pipline hype-wise for GLW now that they have warned on Q4. Earnings are done and said, the downgrades are coming, the next big move (if there is one) will be next quarters CC when the announce Q1 guidance. Question is, does this new lower price reflect the downgrades or is there another drop yet to come?

      I don't see GLW being high-risk at all. I just don't see it making big profits anytime soon. I think it may hover right between $23 and $25 for a couple months ... unless something magical happens like their fiber business takes off and there's speculation on the amount of sales it will generate. I'm just not that optimistic right now.

    • Thank God I didn't have much money in calls. My Feb
      $30 calls died LOL

    • THink thats a good call Imagery, was looking for the same in the conference call. I knew it would be guidance that governed the streets perception today. Gonna strugle for the next quarter. Bought more down 7.5% thinking I will hold until first of next year. This kills me, I have sold a lot of BA knowing their mess is not going away and thinking their conference call would drive this stock down a lot today. Loaded up a bit on Glw to off set that and look what GLW did. BA down 1% and this piece of crap down 8%. Both companies global plays and both leaders in their respective spaces. Looking to foreign markets (etf's) for the rest of the year. Interest rate cut should help there.

    • Your not telling the truth....I see at lease three dips to maybe 4...I should know I bought and sold on all of them this year...here is the chart check for yourself..

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GLW&t=1y

    • "Come on guys ... there is/was no manipulation. "

      You have a good argument but I would add to that we got hit extra hard from the poor performance overall in the market. (Note indexes.) Although there may be but little "manipulation" I'm sure that the hedge funds are using the market downturn to leverage a loss of sentiment.

      I don't necessarily subscribe to all that Cramer says but in his advice to individual investors he asks that they consider taking the other side of the trade that they are biased against. The market, if it's efficient, is equally balanced. The news is already priced in and often exaggerated. He advises against panic sells. Even if you sell a couple of days later he argues that you save some of the loss, on average. You have to admit that he has been successful. (Hundreds of millions as a hedge fund manager?)

      But I am not advising. Everything is IMHO.

      If P/Es mean anything anymore, at an earnings of estimated $1.60 next year, at a price of $23, we have a forward P/E of 14.4. An earnings increase of $0.24 (+17.6%). A forward PEG of 0.82. Those numbers used to signal a "buy".

    • ok i give up ...im slow...trying to figure out what warning was given by GLW this AM...?? listened to the call...ill go back and read transcript ,,,but where/what was the warning...

    • "Expect a few downgrades based on the Q4 warning. It's going to be a bit of a bumpy ride if you stay in. Good luck."

      If I didn't like the bumpy ride, I'd buy SLE and watch the mold grow ;). Topped off my stash with what I could this morning. I thank the sheeple.

 
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