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Corning Inc. Message Board

  • gfo99 gfo99 Apr 15, 2013 2:30 PM Flag

    How can this be sustained? Losing 2%? yr?

    Does the GOP's path forward even exist???
    One thing that’s certain about the future of the minority vote is its continued growth, which has averaged about half a percentage point a year or two points over a Presidential cycle. Given the latest Census population projections, we would expect growth to continue at roughly that level in the future. If it does, the share of minority voters in the 2016 election should be around 30 percent and, in the 2020 election, around 32 percent.

    There is really only one way for the GOP to effectively compete for minority voters: the party must, quite simply, become less conservative. They will have to jettison their bitter hostility to active government, spending on social services and immigration reform and develop their own approach in these areas that minorities might find appealing. It is a way that, so far, Republicans have rejected. But if they continue down this path, it seems likely that Democrats will continue to get 75-80 percent, leaning toward the high side of that range, of the minority vote.

    So what is the path forward? You can't lose ~2% MORE of the vote every year and think you're going to win elections you're already losing badly.

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