This figure is derived from M.F.Loutre and A.Berger, 2000, Future Climate Changes: Are we entering an exceptionally long interglacial?, Climatic Change 46, 61-90
Figure 2 shows how that translates to insolation (sunshine) at 65° North. The recent peak in insolation was 11,000 years ago at the end of the last glacial period. It has since declined by about 10% to 476 watts per square metre. Insolation will rise from here for the next 30,000 years, but it will still be low enough for the next glaciation to form. This is shown by Figure 3 of Northern Hemisphere ice volume for the last 200,000 years and a projection for the next 130,000 years. According to these calculations, the Earth is at the beginning of a 20,000 year plunge into the next ice age.
The reason why the Earth doesn’t respond more rapidly to changes in insolation is due to the retained heat in the oceans, which smoothes the whole process over thousands of years. Over the short term, the oceans are very responsive to changes in solar activity. Figure 5 shows the very strong correlation between the annual rate of sea level rise and solar cycles over the 20th century. The sea level rise of the 20th century can largely be attributed to a more active Sun relative to the 19th century. About 70% of the sea level rise of the 20th century was due to thermal expansion of the oceans, with the rest due to melting glaciers.