Vosaroxin Pricing Assumption Review Drives Our New ~$10 DCF
Valuation: Reit OP
• Bottom Line: After reviewing pricing of comparable and recently
approved hematologic therapies, we are increasing our Vosaroxin
revenue estimates (and DCF valuation) primarily reflecting our increased
estimated Vosaroxin annual acute myelogenous leukemia (AML)
treatment cost to $85K (from $75K). We believe this new Vosaroxin
estimate is more in line with the $80-100K cost of therapies used off label
in AML (i.e., Dacogen). This drives our new ~$10 DCF valuation (from ~
$7) based almost entirely from use in relapsed/refractory (RR) AML. We
currently model no revenue from: (1) front-line (FL) AML, (2) European
approval, and (3) use in Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS), which would
each provide additional upside to our estimates.
This drug has the potential of outdoing Dendreon in pps at Dendreon's high. This is my opinion. I am not saying this just to hear myself talk. The potential cures/remissions of cancerous illnesses that this drug can participate in is incalculable at this point. This could be your next miracle drug! Strong statement, but look at the possibilities that abound using it in the treatment of different forms of cancer. I am thrilled to have had the faith in this drug from the beginning of my investment in it. Notice I said investment. The traders are gone, the investors are still here.