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Sprint Corporation Message Board

  • greekmonster101 greekmonster101 Jun 7, 2013 6:07 PM Flag

    Walking a Simple line though the complexity

     

    1) The real deal is Sprint, since Sprint essentially controls CLWR, focus on Sprint and CLWR will eventually fall into place

    2) Long term most shareholders would prefer SB to Dish (debt scene, business plan, simplicity)

    3) Short term the SB deal is preferable since it is further along

    4) The true power of deal approval lies with the large shareholders of Sprint, thus it is the large holders of Sprint that SB must win over

    5) The large holders are investors who are attuned to profit and risk/reward, meaning they want to push for a higher profit but not at too high a risk the deal falls apart

    6) Large investors realize there is upside NOW but also upside LATER in New Sprint, note for instance Cooperman's comments about getting some cash now and letting the rest ride

    7) So the simple negotiation becomes what cash-portion price will get the votes from the largest of holders

    7a) Note Ergan is essentially out of the equation if a swift higher bid wins the commitment of the largest holders as it may be agreed that the bid will be a) too much for Ergan to match, b) Ergan cannot respond quickly enough, c) or the resulting Dish/Sprint in any event will be too highly leveraged to be viable.

    8) Likely M. Son and the largest holders know where each is at, they are probably some distance apart, hence the start of posturing.......ie SB eyes T-Mobile, some Shareholders bring a suit to delay vote, etc

    9) So the real simplicity here is how much money will it take get the large shareholder votes

    10) This exercise applies to 1.65 Billion shares since those are the cash exchanged shares

    11) M. Son just accessed $4.2 Billion

    12) $4.2 divided by 1.65 = 2.54, 2.54 + 7.30 = $9.84, new bid

    13) Note $4.2 Billion is about the amount of the currency gain for SB, so really SB is on even footing with the original deal with such an increase

    14) the question then is....is $9.84 enough..... and does Ergan have a partner

    This topic is deleted.
 
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