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Samson Oil & Gas Limited Message Board

  • goldiehawn9 goldiehawn9 Mar 29, 2011 7:03 PM Flag

    Frac NEWS

    Denver 1700 hours March 29
    , Perth 0700 hours March 30
    Samson Oil & Gas Limited (ASX: SSN, NYSE AMEX: SSN) provides a progress report on the
    Rodney #1-14 well. (Samson 26.3% working interest) Since the Company’s last report, the 16
    and final stage of the stimulation was pumped, for a total of 1.7 million pounds of proppant placed
    in the well.
    Flow back operations commenced on March 23
    This flow back is being undertaken with 15 .
    individual frac plugs in place, these are required to facilitate the fraccing operations. The flow back
    is being controlled by design to ensure the proppant remains in place. The rate is therefore
    restricted down hole and is not representative of an initial production rate, which can only be
    determined after the frac plugs have been drilled out. This operation (planned as part of the
    completion) will be undertaken by the work over rig that is presently scheduled to be on site next
    Even though the flow rate may not be representative, the restricted flow back results are
    nevertheless very encouraging, with a maximum oil rate of 1320 BOPD being recorded. During the
    flow back operations, the water rate has reduced from an initial rate of 2800 BWPD to 470 BWPD.
    This decreased water rate is commensurate with an initial water cut of 86% reducing to a water cut
    of 48%. It is expected that the water cut will continue to reduce to around 25%. Gas rates have
    varied between 1.38 mmcfpd to 0.9 mmcfpd
    Oil sales commenced immediately and the gas sales line was connected after 4 days of flaring, so
    both products are already being marketed and generating cash flow.

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    • Bill, I appreciate your posts...don't wear your feelings on your sleeve around here. Some people just aren't very kind to opinion other than their own, which is unfortunate. Your heart is in the right place. Tro, you are a man of true class and distinction. You say what you mean without taking somebody's head off. I appreciate you both!

    • andymaxwell Mar 30, 2011 12:01 PM Flag

      And WTI just turned to green...

    • trollen32 Mar 30, 2011 11:59 AM Flag

      Bill, My entire life in the working world was predicated on the reality of it all. Machine design,/construction/and projected out puts dealt with the reality of the design[customer acceptance ]of all those calc's etc.Can;t imagine guessing on any of it, and had to [know], that the design either met or exceeded the expectations, otherwise we would have gone down the drain.You can only make good decisions when you have [known quantums] to work with.You may say that you want to make decisions based on best case/worst case, but like all of it still brings us back to the known's. Company value today, BOPD production, today, and leaseholds values held today vs outstanding debt today.You can speculate tomorrows, but todays are the positives in any judgement call.When you have the known data before you, and are invested here, you have already commited in that frame or period of time, so you must have seen the value.Wellhead pressures, or other on a given well does not a decision make in the larger view ,when considering the larger overview. That's just me, but you do what you think is of import for you.Luck tro

    • True Tro, but as a shareholder/investor I need some basis for determining what the near term gross value of the well might be on a worst case basis before the news breaks. That gives me the opportunity to decide if I think the stock is undervalued, over valued or fairly priced based based on a highly likely outcome.

      Once the well pressures are known for me it's fun to do exactly what was done in this thread and replace the conservative data with actual data and revise the back of the envelope calc and re-asses if the stock is cheap, expensive or fairly priced and then act accordingly.

      The before and after calcs are useful to me in making buy/sell decisions.

    • trollen32 Mar 30, 2011 10:32 AM Flag

      Nah, Just sit back and enjoy the ride bill,I like the numbers to substantiate a good well, and be happy that it is a good well, instead of the alternative.And methods for calcing production, and the eventual degradation are best factored as they occur,well to well over time, though oil bearing strata give up similarity characteristics,there is no substitute for well performance over time.luck tro

    • and after the fact if you're just doing back of the envelope work and not incorporating all of the material factors.

    • trollen32 Mar 30, 2011 9:59 AM Flag

      bill, Guestimating a well is fun, but just to tough and next to impossible to calc, before the fact.Luck tro.

    • The degradation isn't accounted for. I posted the same guestimate and got crucified and I included a disclaimer noting the degradation wasn't factored into the guestimate.

      The newbs should know about the well degradation just for their own knowledge and in case they are relying on the numbers. It's a back of the envelope calc and the numbers are on the high side.

      It's a very good well in any event and the revenue is material to SSN's operations.

    • How is CHK related to this Bakken news?

    • andymaxwell Mar 30, 2011 9:41 AM Flag

      CHK sure likes this news. Up over a buck..

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