Again, too much unrealistic optimism for 1Q with Jan and Feb at 16 mill each.
However, March may come at 19+ mill, show first net positive income and save the day going forward and into the second half. Also, calculation should be based on 42/44 mill o/s not 48. SGA should account for the additional expense coming from the NY presentation.
They already said 50 million plus, so I don't know how that is too much optimism. If there are no extraordinary expenses and if expenses run close to the run rate of the fisrt 3 quarters of 2010, they should be able to easily make a profit.
By the way, go look at their last 10K and look at the expenses for the first 3 quarters of last year. Ignore the 4th quarter because there were some extraordinary items. You will see some pretty consistent expenses qtr to qtr and you will see a pretty consistent gross margin. If you run those against 50 to 52 million in revenue, you should be able to get an idea as to the EPS for this quarter.
Revenue $ 50.0M
COS - 32.5M
Gross Profit 17.5M
Admin - 14.0M
Deprec. - 1.0M
R&D - 0.5M
Inc. from Ops 2.0M
Interest Exp - 4.5M
Incomes Taxes 0.0M (Assumes 0 as previous quarters have been a benefit, conservative)
1st Qtr: Net Inc. - 2.5M
Share outstanding 48M
EPS $ -0.05
Now this is very high level and pretty conservative in some regards. Revenues are supposed to exceed $50M, to what extent? Who knows. Most of the expenses are fairly consistent from quarter to quarter. Assumes no other impairments which guidance has point at and common sense would indicate (its hard to find an accounting reason to impair when impairment have already occurred AND business in improving). My wild cards are the Warrant liability expenses (hard to guess) and income taxes (for anyone interested, this is not the amount paid or anticipated to be paid for the year, it's another accounting calculation, so again, hard to guess).
So with that said, I would say this analysis is on the low end and I anticipate seeing some positive earnings for a change.
FTK is a winner. It will be well over $10 this week. Last week was a gift. Loaded up more in the mid 8's! FTK should double by end of year, IMO. Just wait until FTK gets more attention from analysts ; ). Yahoo still has target set too low!