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Shire plc Message Board

  • exroberts exroberts May 6, 2002 8:45 AM Flag

    What a Difference a Week Can Make

    According to the Yahoo Research Page, there has been a very dramatic change in Analyst recommendations following the Q1 2002 Earnings report released last week. Below you will see the results. You can see this on the Yahoo site, simply by clicking "research" on the right side of the message board page. Go to the very bottom of the page. Seems like alot of analysts now believe that Shire stock is undervalued. The mean target price is now listed at $35.25.


    Broker Recommendations:

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    • Troy already covered some of your questions. However, Ritalin LA is said to be more similar to Metadate CD, likely about an 8 hour effect through the day, with the product being another delivery vehicle for methylphenidate (Ritalin, Concerta, Metadate CD......).

      As for Foznol, could go either way, but I'd be surprised to see it hit "blockbuster" status. However, doesn't necessarily need to for success to be achieved from a business perspective.

    • From old Anormed info site on FOZNOL:

      ...

      Market Opportunity

      It is estimated that there are approximately 650,000 patients worldwide with ESRD. These patients tend to be treated within specialised renal units, which will allow Shire to effectively target the key prescribers, without the need for a large sales force. This is consistent with Shire's strategy of marketing specialty products.

      The total worldwide market for phosphate binders for chronic renal failure patients is estimated to be between US$400 and US$600 million. Based on a number of analyst and industry reports, 2005 sales for Foznol are estimated to be US$150M. Renagel, a direct competitor for Foznol, sales projections for 2002 are estimated to be between US$260-280M.

    • Info on Foznol from old Anormed site:

      Market Opportunity

      It is estimated that there are approximately 650,000 patients worldwide with ESRD. These patients tend to be treated within specialised renal units, which will allow Shire to effectively target the key prescribers, without the need for a large sales force. This is consistent with Shire's strategy of marketing specialty products.

      The total worldwide market for phosphate binders for chronic renal failure patients is estimated to be between US$400 and US$600 million. Based on a number of analyst and industry reports, 2005 sales for Foznol are estimated to be US$150M. Renagel, a direct competitor for Foznol, sales projections for 2002 are estimated to be between US$260-280M.

    • Thanks for the tip about Ritalin LA. I went to the Novartis site and didnt find any information on it. If you have some please share it. But if it is simply another once/day Ritalin, I can not imagine it will be a big success, unless Novartis as a European Company is planning to open up the global ADD market. I can not figure out why Shire is not moving in this direction. Of course, the market outside of the US is small and doctors are not treating patients with these drugs yet. But like any new market, this is about education. Now that Shire has affiliates in the major European markets, they could begin to do this.

      What information do you have about the market potential for Foznol? I have heard the term "blockbuster" used, but it seems like quite a niche market to me.

    • Do you think Shire will make any announcements or simply wait until the formal thumbs-up is given (regarding the FDA approvable letter given last week for 3 new strengths of Adderall XR... 5, 15, and 25 mg)? This should allow them to pick up more of their desired ADD market share, as one of the biggest problems with the long-acting agents is general maneuverability of the dose (Concerta also helped their cause with the recent addition of a 27 mg dose....previously had 18, 36, and 54 only). However, Adderall XR also can be used as a sprinkle formulation (ie into apple sauce or yogurt) and Concerta has to be swallowed whole. They each are good long-acting agents for ADD, but Adderall XR appears to be making excellent and rapid in-roads into this market where Concerta's growth has already happened.

      • 1 Reply to brainskin
      • I believe you will find the answer to your question in the presentation posted on the shire website (investors section, presentations, Q1 2002 results).

        In the third section given by Dr Wilson Totten-Group R&D director, he presented under Project news Jan-april 2002 (as you indicated) that the FDA approvable letter for the new strengths has already been received. But later in the presentation in the section on news flow (slide 32) he presents that in Q2 2002, they expect to announce FDA approval of the new strengths.

        I imagine that as you correctly point out, although the new strengths can help from the marketing point of view, Shire decided that news about approvability of a line extension was not going to get much coverage.

        However, what you can also see on their site is that erosion of Market Share for the ADD franchise has dramatically slowed. The data that they post under Adderall XR Data shows that the Market Share of the franchise has been fairly constant over the past few weeks. Thus perhaps the threat of the generic is just about over. Further, the total market share is not dramatically different now vs last year. At the same time, market share of other growth drivers (pentasa, agrylin, proamatine, etc) have considerably increased. Now when you look at the share price today vs the share price at this time last year (it is now less than half)....it was either greatly over-valued last year or it is greatly under-valued now. What is your opinion?