Week of: AddXR/Concerta/Strattera/StratTRx's
Feb 7, 2003 23.0%/26.3%/4.3%/24,275
Jan 31, 2003 23.2%/26.4%/3.7%/19,506
Jan 10, 2003 23.6%/26.7%/0.6%/3,521
Dec 6, 2002 23.2%/26.7%/0.0%
Nov 1, 2002 22.7%/27.1%
You might want to throw this into excel and plot the points. However, I'd be cautions about drawing too many conclusions (good or bad) with only 4 weeks worth of data.
by my reckoning this makes strattera more successful than adderall XR at a comparative stage (week 4?).
See Shire website Adderall XR data/News section-although not updated recently for some strange reason (!!).
If Lilly continue in similar fashion over the next few weeks/months where would this leave Shire?
I think your prediction, pharma_dood, of mass exodus of reps and scripts is coming through. Perhaps it will hold off until the end of March, when bonuses and retention dollars are paid for the original XR launch. After that, the recruiters will be in business. It does appear Straterra is gaining ground, with what looks like many of those scripts coming from XR patients.
The "We Lie Lilly" is quite comical - they don't apparently have mirrors in Cincinnati. I have never figured out what they are referring to as lies, when everything Shire counters the Lilly product with is stated in black and white in the PI.
I am with Mr Happy as thats the statement in
the public domain-Shire is well behind its timeline as per the 2000 10K and we have not had an adequate explanation as to why.
You seem to be very sure of the launch date of Fosrenol and refer to Shire as "we"-you may wish to think about insider trading issues when addressing the board next time.
History,as ever, will make fools of some of us in due course-but always good to read lively debate!
I am struggling slightly with your broken English.I think my point is quite logically made and is relevant to Shire investors.
are you really saying that Shire can move its own deadline by nearly two years and that following such move there isn't a delay anymore because they told us.
..by analogy ..so your stand at a train station awaiting the 10.00am train,the station announces its going to be five hours late -the train then duly arrvies at 3pm-no delay according to you because they moved the time and let you know-tell that to the passengers!
Can you spell IQ?
approvable letter in Europe??-is there such a thing or are you talking about the US NDA?
Either way 1-2 year delay without any real disclosure from executive management-if this one bombs there will be a lot of questions asked and I am sure paper flying!
pharma dood says: With the launch of Fosrenol being pushed back to sometime between August and October, I can't imagine that Shire can sustain itself long
Where did you get the timeline for Fosrenol release to market?
Extract from Shire's 2000 10K
"Foznol (now of course Fosrenol) is currently undergoing Phase III clinical trials in the U.S. A
Marketing Authorization application is planned to be submitted in the EU during
the first quarter of 2001. We intend to submit a U.S. filing by the end of 2001."
If MAA had been submitted first Q 2001-Shire would have got approval in Q1 2002 if everything had gone to plan-you are talking of launch in Q4 2003.Go figure!
I can read and I can research and I appear to be a lot quicker than you numbnuts!
georgemcbush says, "You seem to be very sure of the launch date of Fosrenol and refer to Shire as "we"-you may wish to think about insider trading issues when addressing the board next time."
Maybe we should remind some of the big mouths in Cincinnati of this. Loose lips sink ships and there are plenty of loose lips at the corporate office. The information that I provided is well known by many there. It was originally leaked by a member of management. So with regard to insider trading do they stone the weak link in the management chain or the person who posted the information?
The flow of information has always been a challenge with Shire, both inside and outside the company. I mean you are talking about a company where the timing and location of your manager's vacation is a confidential secret guarded by a curse similar to that of King Tut.
I would be more concerned about the perforamance of Adderall XR versus Strattera and I wouldn't forget about the fact that Concerta is still on the top of the heap.
Shire has always been an ADHD company and always will be, so Shire will only goe as far as XR can carry them.
The word on the street is that alot of Strattera's scripts are coming from switches from XR to Strattera. Just something to watch for because as long as Lily's market share grows as a result of new patients or switches from other products i.e. Concerta, Focalin, Ritalin LA, Metadate, or gen methylphinidate Shire should weather the storm.