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Shire plc Message Board

  • barr1229 barr1229 Apr 13, 1999 9:36 PM Flag



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    • Don't worry, the company is on track for a record
      year and might/ could post over 100% revenue growth
      during FY99. Carbitrol(sp?) got a slow start, but is now
      starting to take off and Adderall has now overtaken
      Ritalin in market share. I'm taking advantage of the
      current price and adding to my SHPGY holdings. Also, the
      prospect for the new Alzheimer's drug is excellent as it
      is reported to both slow the progression of the
      disease and help with the current state of the patient
      (no other drug does both). Anyway, I'm bullish and
      think the company is now firing on all cylinders (for
      whatever that's worth).

      • 2 Replies to dmc2222
      • Anyone know why SHP is so weak after reporting better than expected earnings? Any news on the Galatamine filing?


        Dr. A.

      • I'd be astonished if these fall much further
        after last month's excellent results. Recent fall may
        reflect concerns that SHPGY was mentioned in a UK press
        article last week as a potential bidder for some of the
        smaller UK biotechs, so some investors may be windy about
        a capital raising or SHP paying too much for an
        iffy biotech. But the SHP management are far too
        shrewd for that.

        There�s also concern about the
        side-effects of ADHD drugs (a rival drug by Medeva is
        struggling to get approval). However, Adderall is a much
        better product that Novartis�s Ritalin, as it only has
        to be taken once or twice daily, compared to 3 times
        for Ritalin.

        That's why Adderall's market
        share is heading from 19% (up from 15% pre-explosion)
        to 25%. Bear in mind (i) that when production was
        interrupted by the explosion last year, parents of ADHD
        children lobbied the FDA to take a benign position on
        relocating production, so that supplies could continue, and
        (ii) that in a total market of $600m each market share
        point translates to $6m in incremental sales. OK there
        are 1-a-day competitors in the pipeline for the
        treatment of ADHD, but Shire also has its own ADHD pipeline

        But the real reason why SHPGY is a BUY at
        these prices is that Shire is able to what most other
        flaky biotechs cannot do - ie reinvest the profits from
        a successful drug (Adderall) into new R&D. Other
        exciting products in prospect are various drug delivery
        technologies, Reminyl/galantamine (Alzheimer's) and Lamda
        (renal failure), the latter with a dosage advantage over
        its competitors.