Don't worry, the company is on track for a record year and might/ could post over 100% revenue growth during FY99. Carbitrol(sp?) got a slow start, but is now starting to take off and Adderall has now overtaken Ritalin in market share. I'm taking advantage of the current price and adding to my SHPGY holdings. Also, the prospect for the new Alzheimer's drug is excellent as it is reported to both slow the progression of the disease and help with the current state of the patient (no other drug does both). Anyway, I'm bullish and think the company is now firing on all cylinders (for whatever that's worth).
I'd be astonished if these fall much further after last month's excellent results. Recent fall may reflect concerns that SHPGY was mentioned in a UK press article last week as a potential bidder for some of the smaller UK biotechs, so some investors may be windy about a capital raising or SHP paying too much for an iffy biotech. But the SHP management are far too shrewd for that.
There�s also concern about the side-effects of ADHD drugs (a rival drug by Medeva is struggling to get approval). However, Adderall is a much better product that Novartis�s Ritalin, as it only has to be taken once or twice daily, compared to 3 times for Ritalin.
That's why Adderall's market share is heading from 19% (up from 15% pre-explosion) to 25%. Bear in mind (i) that when production was interrupted by the explosion last year, parents of ADHD children lobbied the FDA to take a benign position on relocating production, so that supplies could continue, and (ii) that in a total market of $600m each market share point translates to $6m in incremental sales. OK there are 1-a-day competitors in the pipeline for the treatment of ADHD, but Shire also has its own ADHD pipeline products.
But the real reason why SHPGY is a BUY at these prices is that Shire is able to what most other flaky biotechs cannot do - ie reinvest the profits from a successful drug (Adderall) into new R&D. Other exciting products in prospect are various drug delivery technologies, Reminyl/galantamine (Alzheimer's) and Lamda (renal failure), the latter with a dosage advantage over its competitors.