The quality of postings on the Shire Board has hit rock bottom. Doesn't anyone have any original thoughts any more? We are now in a most interesting time for Shire - at the mercy of arbs re the BCHE takeover, even higher highs for Adderall yet confirmed generic competition around the corner (about time too) and the soon to be approved Reminyl blockbuster. Q4 results won't be out until February and remembering the battering that Shire got during the identical time period after announcing the Roberts takeover I reckon that the share price will move rapidly south during January. Shire doesn't have great enough institutional support on either side of the pond to withstand the arbs. Keep selling Shire short and buying BCHE whilst there is an instant 10% profit to be made. During the Roberts takeover there was a short position on Shire of about 10M ADRS from memory. To me it looks like the same story here. This should only be a temporary position but is likely to be significant.
Rolf really rates BCHE but this seems an odd acquisition to me and certainly totally different from what was expected. Personally I hope that Shire's stock price falls far enough to put the deal in jeopardy. Then there really could be a bear squeeze!
The Shire management team (including Victor Vaughn) had a meeting recently out of the country to discuss SLI381 (the once-per-day Adderall) and I can report that "mk_iia" is right in his/her assumption that it is anticipated to be on the market sooner than previously expected.
Unfortunately, I dont think the launch of the once-per-day formulation is dependant on Shire now. It was submitted to the FDA on Oct 3, 2000 and since the FDA usually needs one year to give a response (except for fast tracked products, which this will not be) I dont think we can expect a launch before october 2001 at the earliest. And since this is a product which has its slowest sales months from June-September, I wouldnt imagine that Shire would want to launch before September/October 2001 anyway. More likely, with the time often required to answer questions from the FDA and solve all of the administrative issues, I would expect launch in 1Q2002. Unfortunately, since the Cambrex announced in November of 2000 that they were in a position to make generic adderall, I think we can expect that product to be launched roughly the same time.
Yes ExRoberts, Agreed. - also, and this is very much a personal perspective, it does seem that 'TheStreet.com' manages to be very conservative in it's reporting of Shire.
On Adderall Sales, I seem to recall hearing that the Shire expectation was that sales would continue to rise as the market continued to grow, even though growth in market share may tail-off as new competition came on-stream. That is not especially unusual in growing markets, but it is something that Mr Vaughan would be focused on.
Knowing the Shire Style of under-promising and over-delivering, I wouldn't be too surprised to hear that the once-a-day formulation is much closer to market than expected.
Fgnoms: In your posting you said the following concerning adderall: "yet confirmed generic competition around the corner"...can you please tell me more about this? Where do you have your information? What is the product?
I agree with you about the quality of the board being very poor...the spammers trying to hawk their services make it very frustrating to read this...does anyone have any suggestions on how to differentiate real postings from the crap?
By the way, I agree that in the short term the share price will suffer, but once the merge goes through there seems to be alot of upside potential here...barring some real threat to adderall which I havent heard about...
fgnom, don't under estimate the power of Rolf. He has a good record and he has made the right moves when warranted. Here is a clip from The Guardian.
Shire Pharmaceutical (SHP) - Now a constituent of the FTSE 100 index, pharmaceutical group Shire spooked investors at the tail-end of the year with a $4bn (�2.7bn) all share offer for Canada's BioChem. The track record of chief executive Rolf Stahel is likely to persuade investors of the merits of the BioChem takeover, and the deal continues the move to lessen the company's dependence on the hyper activity drug Adderall. Shire's shares now stand at 1055p, well off their 12-month high of 1508p, and look likely to stage a recovery.