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Shire plc Message Board

  • fgnoms fgnoms Dec 31, 2000 9:53 AM Flag

    Some personal views on SHPGY


    The quality of postings on the Shire Board has
    hit rock bottom. Doesn't anyone have any original
    thoughts any more? We are now in a most interesting time
    for Shire - at the mercy of arbs re the BCHE
    takeover, even higher highs for Adderall yet confirmed
    generic competition around the corner (about time too)
    and the soon to be approved Reminyl blockbuster. Q4
    results won't be out until February and remembering the
    battering that Shire got during the identical time period
    after announcing the Roberts takeover I reckon that the
    share price will move rapidly south during January.
    Shire doesn't have great enough institutional support
    on either side of the pond to withstand the arbs.
    Keep selling Shire short and buying BCHE whilst there
    is an instant 10% profit to be made. During the
    Roberts takeover there was a short position on Shire of
    about 10M ADRS from memory. To me it looks like the
    same story here. This should only be a temporary
    position but is likely to be significant.

    really rates BCHE but this seems an odd acquisition to
    me and certainly totally different from what was
    expected. Personally I hope that Shire's stock price falls
    far enough to put the deal in jeopardy. Then there
    really could be a bear squeeze!

    This topic is deleted.
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    • The Shire management team (including Victor Vaughn) had a meeting recently out of the country to discuss SLI381 (the once-per-day Adderall) and I can report that "mk_iia" is right in his/her assumption that it is anticipated to be on the market sooner than previously expected.

    • Unfortunately, I dont think the launch of the
      once-per-day formulation is dependant on Shire now. It was
      submitted to the FDA on Oct 3, 2000 and since the FDA
      usually needs one year to give a response (except for
      fast tracked products, which this will not be) I dont
      think we can expect a launch before october 2001 at the
      earliest. And since this is a product which has its slowest
      sales months from June-September, I wouldnt imagine
      that Shire would want to launch before
      September/October 2001 anyway. More likely, with the time often
      required to answer questions from the FDA and solve all of
      the administrative issues, I would expect launch in
      1Q2002. Unfortunately, since the Cambrex announced in
      November of 2000 that they were in a position to make
      generic adderall, I think we can expect that product to
      be launched roughly the same time.

    • Yes ExRoberts, Agreed. - also, and this is very
      much a personal perspective, it does seem that
      '' manages to be very conservative in it's reporting
      of Shire.

      On Adderall Sales, I seem to recall
      hearing that the Shire expectation was that sales would
      continue to rise as the market continued to grow, even
      though growth in market share may tail-off as new
      competition came on-stream. That is not especially unusual in
      growing markets, but it is something that Mr Vaughan
      would be focused on.

      Knowing the Shire Style of
      under-promising and over-delivering, I wouldn't be too surprised
      to hear that the once-a-day formulation is much
      closer to market than expected.

    • Fgnoms:
      In your posting you said the following
      concerning adderall: "yet confirmed generic competition
      around the corner"...can you please tell me more about
      this? Where do you have your information? What is the

      I agree with you about the quality of the
      board being very poor...the spammers trying to hawk
      their services make it very frustrating to read
      this...does anyone have any suggestions on how to
      differentiate real postings from the crap?

      By the way, I
      agree that in the short term the share price will
      suffer, but once the merge goes through there seems to be
      alot of upside potential here...barring some real
      threat to adderall which I havent heard about...

    • fgnom, don't under estimate the power of Rolf. He
      has a good record and he has made the right moves
      when warranted. Here is a clip from The

      Shire Pharmaceutical (SHP) - Now a constituent of the
      FTSE 100 index, pharmaceutical group Shire spooked
      investors at the tail-end of the
      year with a $4bn
      (�2.7bn) all share offer for Canada's BioChem. The track
      record of chief executive Rolf Stahel is likely to
      persuade investors of
      the merits of the BioChem
      takeover, and the deal continues the move to lessen the
      company's dependence on the hyper activity drug
      Shire's shares now stand at 1055p, well off their
      12-month high of 1508p, and look likely to stage a