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Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (FOLD) Message Board

  • expert.short expert.short Dec 11, 2012 1:56 PM Flag

    up already $1100 on my 10,000 short position. average at 5.57

    perfect short opportunity. those who think this will jump like ACAD are doing a grave mistake.

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    • You are right, FOLD won't move like ACAD, but I was in ACAD before its pivotal data release and its market cap was only around $100M... so tripling only gave ACAD a $300M market cap (drifted down a bit since, but still in the high $200Ms)...

      FOLD will move into the $500M-$700M market cap range, should its pivotal Fabry program proved clinical significant....

      So, yes, be happy that you've shorted 10K and is already $1,500 in the plus side.

      Remember, when you use margins --- and short a VOLATILE stock like CLSN, FOLD, ACAD, etc. --- your broker CAN and WILL call you for large sums of CASH to be deposited, should a stock like FOLD or ACAD move up 50% to 300%!

      So, again, I don't see FOLD tripling --- getting a market cap valuation around $900M, with a clinically significant pivotal Phase III data release on Fabry; but it could easily double!

      Since you're short, your job is to PRAY that FOLD reports negative outcomes! When I have done the research and buy LONG, I like shorts. Short are the ones would contribute to my account getting bigger, faster.... so, unlike others, I won't pretend to give you a hard time on your shorting of 10,000 FOLD shares and, so far, being $1,200 in the positive.

      Just make sure you put some away for MARGIN CALLS!

    • I would cover it if I was you cuz any day now the big news would come out and u will get creamed

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • enjoy it, then. but don't forget to set some aside for margin calls. those calls happen when you're least expecting them!

      you mentioned ACAD, saying FOLD won't run like ACAD... you are correct: i was in ACAD --- for its Parkinson's Disease Psychosis --- before the data release and i was up nicely... but ACAD's market cap was around $100M pre-data release; immediately, its market cap went up to around $300M; drifted down a bit since, but still in the high $200Ms.

      so, no, i don't expect FOLD market cap to triple.... but I expect it to be around Protalix's market cap (not at its height but right now).... at the very least.... between $500M and $600M, for a stistically signficant reporting on a pivotal, Phase III program on a RARE disease, like Pompe, Fabry, Gaucher's, etc.

      REMEMBER: GSK is also in FOLD.... to make money, taking around 20% interest... GSK, like a few other giants, wants to build a "rare disease" portfolio (Lupus from HGSI was one of GSK's recent rare disease take-overs). GSK has more expertise and scientists who could do complex diseases analysis than YOU or I could ever hope to be able to do, or to understand...

      anyway...

      CHAPERONE is a NOVELTY undertaking, so some initial setbacks like the Gaucher's program, 2009, was expected.... but the Phase II preliminary STATS for both FABRY and POMPE, at FOLD, look pretty promising so far, along with very good safety profile (ease of use, as an ORAL).... much better than Genzyme's Fabrazyme (bi-monthly, multiple-hours of needle-infusion process)...

      true, initially FOLD's drug may not be covering as many sub-sets of Fabry sufferers; but it is a MANIPULABLE novelty approach dealing with PROTEIN FOLDING (misfolding) ... an approach that also has ramification beyond just the direct LYSOSOMAL STORAGE DISEASES like Gaucher, Pompe, Hurler, Hunter, Tay-Sachs, etc.

      PARKINSONS and other such NEUROLOGICAL diseases.... and with today's supercomputational algorithms, as well as biochemistry and genetic/chromosomal knowledge..... these highly REFINED, targeting novelty programs WILL succeed, incrementally, even on these extremely complex, extremely debilitating, and often times (in the past) deadly diseases...

      Parkinson's is, among other things, a problem of the brain neuron's inability to handle and to get rid off protein aggregates ("waste build-ups") like Lewy bodies and Lewy neurites.... or MISFOLDED PROTEINS...

      notice that FOLD is starting from scratch, recallibrating again, on its Gaucher's program, as well as starting on Parkinson's?, as well as other LYSOSOMAL STORAGE DISEASES?, by deploying its CHAPERONE approach?

      Why?

      Because CHAPERONES are a class of REGULATORY MOLECULES whose job is to mediate the folding and/or unfolding of PROTEIN substrates, or the assembling and/or dissambling of LARGER protein aggregates... scientists SIMPLY need to understand them better, to make them work better, so they could carry out their tasks in PROTEOSTASIS (or the tasks of making sure proteins work correctly, since PROTEIN MISFOLDING is tONE of the underlying causes of many debiliting and deadly diseases)...

    • cbdanielson@sbcglobal.net cbdanielson Dec 11, 2012 2:41 PM Flag

      don't spend it all in 1 place.

    • IMHO...No one gives a #$%$

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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