still a future business here? Valuation continues to get lower and lower. I'm hoping for $5 - $6 per share. They've got roughly $1/share in cash and still have a huge return on equity (of course that's before I make an appropriate downward adjustment for the stock option plan).
I've been looking at ORCL - I'm getting interested. I've gotten a few software companies at 10x peak FCF + cash and have had excellent returns with them. ORCL's getting close to that point. Although if you expense options, the actual buy price is probably in the $3-4 range. And they definitely have a franchise with their current customers - the switching costs would be horrendous.
I'm not a big fan of management (who could be?), otherwise I'd be buying now.
Other ones to watch - MSFT is trending down - I think its a buy at $45, ADSK is there - but I'm a bit worried about their AutoCAD franchise. CHKP is close as well, and they have a significant competitive advantage b/c of Israeli tax laws. Although I think the integrated Symantec will overcome them in the long run. Another interesting one to watch is Sage plc over in London - that's getting close to a buy.
The whole software industry has great economics. Where else can you make so much cash on so little capital investment? But you better buy into an established franchise, otherwise there are small barriers to entry.