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Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Message Board

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  • jad1148 jad1148 Jun 28, 2003 10:20 PM Flag

    Jimmy Rogers on Cavuto

    Hi Darla,

    I'm afraid your bull market is just that ... bull.

    You're correct in that the S&P500's 19.66% cumulative total return over the last eight months ( 9/30/2002 to 5/31/2003 ) is nothing short of impressive.

    Unfortunately 17.13% of that return is attributable to a "run up" in the Price/Book ratio ( from 2.51 on 9/30/2002 to 2.94 on 5/31/2003 ).

    If you factor that out, you'll end up with a 2.16% cumulative total return which annualizes to 3.26%. Nothing special about that, no risk credit union five year certificates of deposits are still available with an APY of 3.4% to 3.5%.

    Just a gentle reminder, contractions can occur just as swiftly (if not more so) than expansions. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if in the next couple of months Mr. Market (all investors in aggregate) once again becomes fearful and trashes the multiple. Historically October was supposed to be "the month". Last year, for obvious reasons, September was "the month" to be fearful and since almost everyone tries to outsmart everyone else, perhaps this year August will be "the month". No one really knows. You might want to keep some powder dry, just in case, you wouldn't want to miss a buying opportunity.

    One last comment: I'm probably the most pessimistic person who posts here. To an optimist a realist most look like a pessimist. Am I a realist or a pessimist? I honestly don't know. Only time will tell.

    Best of luck with your investments,
    jad

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    • To an optimist a realist most look like a pessimist. Am I a realist or a pessimist? I honestly don't know. Only time will tell.


      Yea and to a Pessimist the Optimist looks like a fool.

      This has been a knee jerk rally from the Iraq war. At some point people will say have things gotten better? If they have no correction(no run up either maybe) or if not correction.

      They havent gotten better yet, so I would get a correction is coming.

      SWUSC

 
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