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Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Message Board

  • iluvbabyb iluvbabyb Sep 7, 2003 10:23 AM Flag

    Sunday paper musings

    James Glassman's column today addressed many of the topics we have recently chatted about from the Fed model, Bill Gross's 5000 Dow comment, why ROE, ROA and ROI are some of the best ways to analyze stocks and several stocks we've discussed (including many on my team ;-)...he even answered Dazz's never-ending question after vacationing in Australia ;-)

    When you buy a stock, you should think of yourself as a steadfast partner in a business. The value of that business changes from day to day, thanks to what Gustave Flaubert, the French novelist and all-around wit, called "the thermometer of public opinion." Those short-term price changes are almost always irrelevant, and looking at them can make you overwrought -- susceptible to the classic errors (like selling too soon) of emotion.


    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A33942-2003Sep6.html

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    • I'll try that email today. Thanks in advance.
      bg

    • Don't think I ever saw any of your questions. You can e-mail me at trbabyb@prodigy.net. I'll check that mailbox at the end of today...otherwise gimme a "You've got mail" here...to prompt me to peek into that rarely-used mailbox ;-)

    • Sorry, I can't reveal someone else's identity or divulge their e-mail address.

      She seems to be on-line most weekdays during market hours.

      If you can catch her, she'll give you a rarely used e-mail address. She checks it only if she knows in advance someone is trying to contact her. My very first contact took several days for that very reason.

      She and MarknMT exchange opening and closing greetings each day. Maybe MarknMT would intercede on your behalf.

    • I'll have to agree, iluvbabyb is one of the more intelligent writers on this board. Does she really have a newsletter? I've asked her a question once or twice but she ignores me.
      I'd be very interested in her A list of stocks. thanks in advance
      bg

    • Instead of debating over babyb and Glassman you all should have been reading this article from the NY Times Magazine (for Times subscribers). Here's your second chance:

      http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/07/magazine/07HAPPINESS.html

    • With regard to ILuvBabyB:

      Go back and READ her original message. She is merely making a statement regarding the subjects covered in Glassman's column. I always read her messages and even subscribed to her newsletter for a while (my personal situation doesn't allow for much individual stock selection). If there is anything this board needs more it's estrogen. I wish babyb and bowboe1015 would both post more. I want to hear more from bowboe1015 in particular on preferred stocks. There are several other ladies who truly add to this board as well.

      alwaysbuycheap wrote:
      "BTW, I don't think babyb is a pollyanna."

      I don't know if she is or isn't. If she supports DOW 36,000 (that large caps are grossly undervalued) she is. Although she does occasional buy some large caps she appears to specialize in the mid caps and it wouldn't surprise me if she still finds values there.

      zincksink wrote:
      "babyb is cute and she writes very aggressively with a style the assaults anyone who differs from her. She's a class act in arrogance and ignorance."

      Cute? Well, I've never met her. Those who have say she resembles Faith Hill. I'm lean more towards Shania Twain myself. (No offense babyb). I don't find her writing style at all aggressive. I write aggressively. If you don't have the strength of conviction to write in a strong voice maybe you should give your thoughts more time before presenting them. I do enjoy babyb's alliterations (Grantham Growls). I always smile before I groan. ;^)

      Yesterday was a slow day. I do think Babyb is something of a tease. The most I would accuse her of was "baiting the bears". It worked, didn't it?

      Hope that clears things up.

      Best regards all,
      jad

    • "Of the stocks mentioned in this article, James K. Glassman owns Amazon.com and Automatic Data Processing."

      Should Glassman be taken serious when he in fact owns Amazon stock?

    • Glassman believed that 36,000 was a "perfectly reasonable price", PRP, for the DJIA way back in September 1999. What really blows me away is that Glassman's logic and math is correct! He uses (or is it abuses) my beloved discounted dividend model when he plugs some dubious numbers into the equation. His major error was assuming too large a growth rate. He's not alone here. His second error is actually becoming a reality. He argued that stocks are just as safe as Treasury bonds and don't deserve an equity risk premium. Since he wrote that, the equity risk premium has gotten smaller. Some think it is already at zero. Would you actually buy "Diamonds" (AMEX ticker symbol DIA, an exchange traded fund that tracks the DJIA) if you believed you would make the same return as a long Treasury bond? Why (other than tax purposes)? Shouldn't businessmen (even those who only pretend at it) expect to make a businesslike return on an equity purchase?

      Anyone need a refresher on Dow 36,000?
      http: //www.theatlantic.com/issues/99sep/9909dow.htm

      [QUOTE]
      "At the start of this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was about 9,000. ... If we use the dividend yield from the Fed data as our starting point, the market needs to quadruple to reach the PRP."
      [UNQUOTE]

      Reminder, "the start of this year" was January 1999.

      I'll cast my lot with the "pessimists" (or are they really realists?) Bill Gross and Jeremy Grantham, who are, IMO, closer to the truth than Glassman and his fellow Pollyannas can ever hope to be.

 
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