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Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Message Board

  • berknovice4now berknovice4now Dec 31, 2003 11:27 AM Flag

    This market...!

    Anyone else have an uneasy feeling about how the new year will start?

    Almost everything I am looking at is at a peak...almost everything.

    I suspect a little conspiracy..."let's get our bonuses this year...forget about next year."

    Oh, and WEB's PTR - it is up 42% !!! in one month. That's our money, folks. :)


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    • << Anyone else have an uneasy feeling about how the new year will start?
      Almost everything I am looking at is at a peak...almost everything. >>

      Yeah, that's how I feel too.

      I'm primarily a mutual fund investor, so the pickings are even slimmer for me.

      My wife and I have our Roth IRAs with Dodge & Cox Balanced. I'm probably reading too far between the lines but my impression is that they are actually trying to talk investors out of adding to the fund.

      Some quotes from the 3Qtr2003 Report:

      "The stock market is at a relatively high valuation on a number of measures and, as always, we would caution investors that the return from investing in stocks at these levels may be low or possibly negative in the coming years. It is also important to note that we have lowered our allocation to fixed-income securities as a percentage of the total Balanced Fund (23%) due to the lower total return prospects for fixed-income securities given the low interest rate environment. The Fund's cash position at 13% reflects our cautious outlook for future fixed-income and equity returns."


      "In our view, a significant number of companies in the S&P 500 have overly optimistic valuations."


      "While the Fund emphasizes lower valuation companies, 8.3% of the equity portfolio is now invested in stocks, such as Pfizer and Comcast, in the most expensive one-third of the market, as measured by price-to-sales (P/S)."

      For the full report download:
      http: //

      Unless a market correction occurs before the end of March 2004, we won't be contributing to our Roth IRAs for this year (2003). :^(

      This is probably the best performing investment we own (sorry Warren). I wish I could take credit for having picked this but I can't, it was iluvbabyb's idea. She recommended it to someone else years ago and I tagged along.

      A big, belated, *** THANK YOU ILUVBABYB *** !

      Hey, zinkcink/dealraker or whatever you call yourself, are you lurking out there? I'm just as cranky as you are, but I Luv BabyB.

      Thanks again "B",

    • "Anyone else have an uneasy feeling about how the new year will start?"

      Less oncerned about how it will start than how it will end. Things like this give slight cause for concern. Think of all the industries and people that may be affected.

      NEW YORK, Dec 31 (Reuters) - New applications for U.S. mortgages fell last week to their lowest weekly level in 2003, as home sales at year's end have cooled from their early torrid pace, a U.S. mortgage industry group said on Wednesday.

      The Mortgage Bankers Association said its widely watched mortgage market index, a measure of mortgage loan demand, for the week ending Dec. 26 declined 9 percent to 574.1 from the prior week's 631.2.

      "The peak in home sales may be behind us," said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp.

      Fears over rising rates and falling sales have hurt stocks of lenders and homebuilders. Some lenders like Washington Mutual Inc. (WM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) announced layoffs in their mortgage units in response to the drop in loan demand.


    • Speaking of "our" money, I took a look at the top four equity holdings over the past year. AXP up 38%, KO up 14.4%, G up 20.45%, and WFC up 25.41%. Total dollar increase in these holdings alone is in excess of $4.564 billion. Not brilliant, but nice rebound for the inevitables.

      • 1 Reply to windsorcastlehog
      • << AXP up 38%, KO up 14.4%, G up 20.45%, and WFC up 25.41%....Not brilliant, but nice rebound for the inevitables. >>

        While I'll certainaly take the increase with a smile, I wouldn't have minded if they'd managed as a group to match the S&P. On the other hand, if things go way south, I expect those guys to hold a lot more value than ChinaGenomicsForMadCowDotCom, so perhaps I should lighten up a bit and have some eggnog, eh?

    • I waited to sell about half of my PTR until after the 1st. Glad I did now. Of course like my other holdings that I sold I suppose it will go on to double once again.

      Yes, almost everything is at a peak. Everyone knows this. Which is why we could very well see another positive year contrary to any good sense. I just wouldn't bet on it or require that to happen in order for me to be happy.

      Good luck.

    • Yeah, it's creeping me out. (Well, it's creeping me out now that I've finished benefitting from it.)

204,945.00+3,585.00(+1.78%)Dec 1 4:03 PMEST