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Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Message Board

  • rocketscienc rocketscienc Oct 12, 2004 12:57 PM Flag

    If we replay 73-74 in the coming years

    the dow will be sitting at 3000...

    Can you imagine? You better cuz it COULD and more than likely WILL happen.


    Patience.

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    • If Warren believed that he would most certainly be selling (regardless of the logistics) off the stock positions.

    • well you are not buying for the real reason. But you are buying I guess that is good. not sure.

      But you should buy physical paid in cash.

      Some places

      www.tulving.com
      www.bulliondirect.com
      www.golddealer.com

    • Assuming silver is a safe hedge against the drop of the dollar, what is your recommendation on how to play it?

    • oh and i say said fact of selloff. Buffett will be happy. But you have to realize most investors dont have a clue and will lose their life savings on THIS selloff...

      Like they did in every ohter selloff.

    • The sad fact is the market will sell off regardless of reason. Of coarse, the reason will be well if that did not happen then the market would be doubled. Well, the simple fact is it does not matter the reason. The market must selloff to get to the bear bottom regardless.

      Let God bless America and just hope the country can continue the outstanding job on terrorism. IF one gets thru, and GOD I hope these thugs can not get one thru, I dont want to hear well it was the attack. ITS NOT! The selloff would have happened either way.

    • rocketscienc,

      I pretty much agree with your assertion that we're more likely to see lower lows than we've seen since the mid-90s or so.

      I think most people that have carefully read "Bull" by Mahar can at least imagine such a scenario. It's ironic that reading "Bull" can turn one into a _Bear_, but there it is.

      To me it intuitively makes sense. I mean, the bull market didn't happen overnight. It lasted a LONG time. Is it realistic to think that the sins of the past that took a long time to build can be expunged in a short 4 years?

      Perhaps a year ago, a fella posted that we were in a cyclical bull in a secular bear market. At the time I didn't understand what that was supposed to mean. Now I do, and it makes sense.

      In order for the bear to end, people have to be mauled into submission. Pesimism drives down prices. Market participants,_in the whole_, are still overly optimistic.

      Interest rates are still low. This means that some people are in the market because returns on fixed income securities are poor.

      Trade deficit, fiscal deficit, war on "terror", will most likely decrease the value of the US$. This may also encourage foreign investors to remove capital from the US, causing more problems with the market.

      The market as a whole still trades at an above-historical P/E. How come? Because it takes awhile for these things to happen. Why shouldn't we see P/Es lower than the historical average? By all means, we should. Is the "stellar" accounting practised by today's corporation going to keep the markets aloft?

      I can't really see why silver would not be a better place than US cash right now. It is an asset with real uses. Currency is more of a soft asset I think. It can be manipulated to suit political desires. I suppose silver can be manipulated also, like the Hunt's did, but at least it is a real consumable.

      Hi ho silver away?,

      gene (not a silver holder... but I do have some quarters for the laundry :-D They aren't silver, but they're shiny)

    • remember Buffett returned shareholders cash in 69 (analygous to 99) and the selloff did not happen until 73-74...

      SO it can and will take years. WE are 4 years into this thing now. It may well be at least another 4 years. maybe tomorrow; may be 10 years. WHO KNOWS. But it will

    • The only stocks we hold relative to making a difference in our portfolio are things buffett bought at the bottom of the 70's bear and the beginning of the 2 leg of the 80- 90's bull. Those are businesses that will compound for 30 years out so he will not sell those and probably can not sell those logistically.

      The rest is a 40+ bil cash horde for the next 73-74 selloff that is 100% garenteed to happen based on precedents of all other BULL markets in history. WHEN? anyones guess. WILL it? ABSOLUTELY.

      again. Its human nature to think the current situation in the markets is permanent. IN silver in a bull and in a bear market all the same it will change and the pendillium will swing to the extreme other side someday.

      Patience.

    • Predicting LONG term movement. Day to day month to month year to year no...


      BUt over the next 5 to 10 years. DEFINITELY.

      OH and Buffetts actions agree with me. He is in all the silver he can buy and cash...

    • I doubt we will see the Dow at 3000. If we do, Buffett and many here will be tapdancing to work. We should be so lucky.

      • 1 Reply to web_rules
      • as long as you are around long enough on the board right the post down you heard it from me first. If not 3000, i say lower. when the fear hits, and it will, the baby and the bath water will be thrown out.

        Thats what bear markets are all about.

        Asked in 79 if silver would ever trade at 4 bucks. The answer would be NEVER!

        Well we had 18 years of it with the best fundamentals in finacial history. Bears can do that kinda thing.


        Patience.

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