The broad measures of business and consumer prices, such as the consumer price index, the producer price index, and the personal consumption deflator are barely up, flat, or down. According to the Feds latest report "the capacity utilization rate for total industry was flat at 74.8 percent, a rate 6.6 percentage points above the low in June 2009 and 5.8 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2009." The United States economy is stuck in a ditch seemingly unable to return to its full productive capacity. The world has shifted from the era of inflation to one of deflation.
Bonds would have to fall 25% in 13 months before you'd lose any money. This ETF's bond portfolio has an average maturity of about 28 years and it only yields about 4%. If 30 year bond rates rise to 6% in the next year you'd lose some money.
I'm currently short both the puts and calls against this ETF. But I was shorting the calls when the stock was over 105 and I've only recently shorted the puts.
The five year low on this ETF is about 83. The puts I'm short are all 80 or under. As you may know, if you sell the put you're willing to buy the stock/ETF at that price and the premiums you keep regardless.