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Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Message Board

  • balak_joshi balak_joshi Oct 28, 2011 11:34 AM Flag

    Book Value est. $97000 as of September

    The 1.1times Book is 106700. There is no margin of safety at 119,000. Berkshire has many risks including proven successor records as Charlie and Warren age.

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    • No margin of safety. . . Ok

    • But Buffett said he would never publicly give his opinion of IV. Uh oh! Now, I have to pick one of the statements to believe. No worries, easy choice for me.

    • I might need some tips for my next visit to Vegas.

      Based on what I came up with, I don't think they bought any B's above $71. Looking back, that would mean there were very few chances for them to buy.

      We'll know soon enough.

    • << more flaws than one of HC's strippers,>>

      bro, if you know where to look my strippers are FLAWLESS !! just for fun, give us your guess what was the limit brkb paid for brkb in q-3 thanks bro, i'm going with 73ish. thanks.

    • The top 6 holdings (KO, WFC, AXP, PG, KFT, JNJ) make up approximately 2/3rds of the portfolio.

      The performance of those 6 was (6.3%) in Q3 and +7% in October. In comparison, the S&P (ignoring dividends) in both periods was (14.3) in Q3 and +13.6% in October.

      There are 1,651,273 equivalent A shares oustanding.

      Based on that and many other inputs, my calculations of A equivalent BV incorporating:
      equity portfolio gain/losses
      proceeds from profit & fixed investments
      derivative adjustments
      EOQ3 = $96,728
      End of October = $101,237

      I'm the first to admit that my algorithm still has even more flaws than one of HC's strippers, but it's a start. I did end up very close to your EOQ3 number, but significantly higher than your current BV. My MTD change is driven 50% by equity change, 37% derivatives and 13% ops/fixed.

      I didn't adjust for taxes, so that might shave about $500 from Q3 ($96,200) and $700 or so from my current estimate ($100,500). Need to look into how best to account for that if I spend more time on this.

    • <<The 1.1times Book is 106700. There is no margin of safety at 119,000.>>


      You can't make it up. You have to see it to believe it.


    • You don't seem to be willing to say anything substantive. I wonder why not.

      You certainly can't be expecting to take anybody in on your absurd claim that Buffett is handing out meaningless numbers in his public statements. Maybe you're trying to convince yourself.

      Because Buffett regularly tailors the number of cents per dollar he says he's paying, depending on the climate. I've heard him say everything from 40 to 90. Making the figure a critical part of the statement.

      You say no. You say that practice has suddenly changed. Suddenly, beginning Q4 2011, the cents per dollar are like a stitch in time. Buffett has gone innumerate. Could be 8, could be 4. I wonder why you're suddenly ignoring Warren Buffett speaking publicly about the value of Berkshire Hathaway.

      Price to book obviously needs to be way, way less than the 1.6 or 1.7 it was back when growth was stratospheric. But to you 1.2 is obviously way, way too low. Er ... what number do you think is way less than 1.6 but way more than 1.2?

      Listen to Buffett. It'll save you dough. That's always been the case.

    • It's fun playing dumb, huh? How many stitches did you save with one in time?

    • I won't bother trying to puzzle out what it means when you say you have no problem with Buffett's remarks, then fill your post with snide asides at those of us who are actually taking Buffett's comments seriously. (I assume it means you have a problem with something but can't support your position.)

      Anyway I'll repeat my invitation: Please forward any criticisms of Buffett's remarks to Buffett himself. For example if you feel the figure 90/100 is wrong, let him know. I'm sure he'll want to issue a retraction or correction as soon as possible.

      Taking it up with me on a message board isn't going to get you anywhere.

    • I have no problem with what he said, and I'm not complaining to you about it. I'm just pointing out you're being silly. If you want to be silly, have at it. A stitch in time saves nine......

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